We've all been wondering for a long time now who will survive the final 9 episodes of the Sopranos, so I thought it would be fun to attempt to figure it out ourselves. Here's the chance of survival of many major characters from the Sopranos as I estimate it. Feel free to post yours too and comment!

Johnny Sacs: 5% Chance of Survival -- I see no reason to keep him around very long, especially considering HBO wanted to make budget cuts this season. No better way to cut your budget than knock some people off. After viewing the scene where Phil returns home from the hospital last night, I believe a NY power struggle is inevitable. What better way to shake things up than with the death of Johnny? I don't give him more than another 2 episodes.

Phil Leotardo: 30% -- I can't make up my mind about Phil. I'd say most likely he's gone. I can see him getting too emotional about something and not being careful.

Bobby: 75% -- I think the dust has already settled between Bobby and Tony after last nights episode. I see no reason for Bobby not to survive, but Chase rarely does anything randomly, so maybe last night will come back and bite him in the ass.

Paulie 1% -- Paulie is dead. After all the struggles he's been through last season including his illness and his mother/aunt, I see him too getting too emotional about something, losing his head and ending up dead. The set up is too perfect as of right now.

Silvio: 50% -- When you think about it, we don't really know too much about Sil. He's not fit to be boss (obvious after last season's asthmatic episode) and he's got a badass haircut. This can be taken two ways: 1. Because he's so up in the air, he's an easy budget cut and kill. 2. Despite his somewhat smallish role, everybody loves him and theres if anyone is going to survive, why not Sil?

Christopher: 50% -- This is a tough one. A lot of people, from what I've been reading, feel that Chris's death is inevitable given the upcoming release of his movie and his drug problems. However, nobody's relationship with Tony has been set up in more detail than Chris'. If he's going to go, it'll be late in the series.

Uncle Junior: 0% -- It's time for that old bastard to keel over. His death is long overdue. I'm guessing old age will play into this, not a hit. The man's been senile for too long.

Janice: 90% -- I've been wanting her out of the series for years lol, oh well. I don't see it happening.

Carmella: 85% -- Unless things get REALLY screwed up, which is possible, who would kill Tony's wife? That's low. Really low. (Unless he did it, but I seriously doubt that as well.)

Meadow: 90% -- Again, I don't see it happening for the same reasons as Carmella.

AJ: 60% -- If any direct family member of Tony's is going to screw up, it's AJ. Unless of course thats too obvious

Artie: 60% -- He's been having problems since episode 1. Problems enough to lead to his death? Sometimes yes, usually no. But what better way to relate the first episode with the last than doing something with Artie and Tony?

Now, the big kahuna. Last night, Tony gave himself an 80% chance of ending up dead of in jail. I don't see in jail happening, too open of an ending. If he went to jail, I'd say someone kills him while he's there. Death, however, seems too obvious for Chase's taste. Then again, the everything goes on as it always did/happily ever after ending seems way out of range too. The truth is, I don't see Tony making it through episode 9. So, my prediction for Tony Soprano: 10% chance of survival.

I'll go even deeper....

Carlo Gervasi 10%- Once Phil and New York find out about the death about Fat Dom, Carlo's a goner.

Patsy Parisi 25%- Has never really agreed with Tony, after Tony had his brother "Philly Spoons" Parisi whacked. Also had a problem with Tony with him picking Christopher to take over Paulie's vacant Capo position even though Patsy had senority.

Benny Fazio 45%- New York has attacked him before. By killing Benny, New York would be sending a message to Christopher since Chris has always been Benny's pal.

Little Paulie 60%- Since he's always around Paulie Walnuts, he could be killed for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Murmur 90%- Tony was coming around to him late in 6A, but you never know when you hit the mattresses!

I think Murmur is a prime candidate to become an informant. He's obviously not from their background, he's an ex-junkie himself and honestly, he just doesn't look like he could do time.

Good point, I always wondered if Larry Boy Barese was a rat since he always managed to show up at large family gatherings.

I can agree with all your percentages except Tony's. I've posted elsewhere that I can see Tony just continuing on - nothing dramatic happening despite what's happening all around him. I can see the series going off into the sunset with a whimper, not a bang.

Remember when he was under house arrest and he showed up at Raymond's surprise party, claiming he told his parole officer something to the affect of "I have balls, asshole."

I can assure you, he'd be violated in 30 seconds, just for the tracking anklet going outside of his home, let alone a dinner with a bunch of known felons.

You never know.

Whatever happened to his brother Ally Boy Barese? He was a reacurring character in the 3rd and 4th seasons, then by season five he was gone.

The actor who played him was arrested on drug charges here in New York a few years ago. I'm not sure if that has anything to do with his disappearance.

I think the big surprise is going to be that most of those ppl survive. More specifically, I think Chrissy, Paulie and Sil will ALL make it to the end. Sil and Paulie are like brothers to Tony. Pussy's memory STILL haunts him I think, and I also believe there is a certain bond between the four that goes furthur than that of most 'families'. Chris would be included in that group. Granted, things HAVE gone south with the group since/right before Pussy's death, but I think there is an underlying bond between the FIVE of them and I think they all live. Tony still hurts from Pussy's death and will not let anything happen to those guys, especially........Paulie Walnuts.

Of course, I see life for Uncle, Bobby, and Janice as well, so.... maybe I'm just an optimist. Seriously though, Janice has transformed greatly b/c of Bobby and I think he lives for that reason. Uncle will live as well as Tony undergoes a metamorphisis into the Christ role and 'saves' the whole lot of them.

I don't know about Artie's path. It MIGHT be time for THE Lord to 'save' him.

What a great topic. Seriously, this is the best Sopranos topic I've seen anywhere.

I think Tony's chance of survival is 90%. I can see everything from life in prison to depression due to all the deaths of those close to him heaved at Tony, but at the end I think he'll be alive. Can't explain it, but I just feel he's gonna make it to the end.

Paulie's chance at survival is 10%. IMO he's gonna get taken out mafia style by New York for one reason or another.

Silvio's chance of survival is 90%. He just seems like the type of guy that'd be there still standing when the dust settles.

Chris's chance of surivival is 10%. I think that either Tony will have to kill him, or NY will get to him. That said I think the fact that it's so obvious is some kind of curveball and that maybe there's a slight chance that Chrissy will live.

Bobby's chance at survival is 80%. I can see him becoming a rat, but I just can't picture a scenerio where they kill him in the final episodes. I think Bobby is safe.

I think all of the Soprano family is gonna stay alive because I just don't see them coming after Tony's real family.

I think that old age will get to Uncle Junior so I'm making his chance at surviving 25%.

Your posts supports my contention that the whole thing could end with a wimper, with all the major players, save maybe a couple, sitting outside of Satriale's as it al goes to black. Nothing dramatic.

That would suck. I can roll with symbolism and metaphors and all that good stuff while the series goes on, but if this show doesn't end with a bang I'll find myself very dissapointed.

From today's New York Post:




Looks like the "Pine Barrens" boys are front runners.

That's great!!! I know Vegas has done this kind of thing before. Remember when they placed odds on who shot JR?

If I were in Vegas I'd place a bet!!!



TIS

Ten to one -- ten to one shot you said -- ten to one shot it would be Tony! You sound like my bookie. I owe that monkey my life.

Think about it. How many seasons have ended with a bang? Would the finale be any different. How many times has an episode ended with Tony exhibiting a contemplative demeanor, in a contemplative pose? That was certainly the case a couple of times during last Sunday's episode. When you combine that with the backdrop of the whole series (Tony in therapy), it's a distinct possibility.

I don't mean that I want all the bodies to hit the floor, but I do think that someone very close to Tony should bite the bullet. That is pretty much all I want, one or two meaningful deaths. Pussy and Richie in Season 2 style. I'm more than fine with the final scene being Tony sitting their staring straight ahead as he wonders what became of his life, but I still think that Chase should try to leave a lasting memory in our minds with the final few episodes.

The ducks, the ducks.

If they had Chris pecked to death by ducks to symbolize something really really deep that would go right over my head, I'd be ok with that.

Now there's and idea!

Am I the only one who feels that one of THE underlying themes of the show is that Tony will eventually obey the wishes of his family and get the hell out of the mafia?

If he does try and leave the 'life'......I think that Hollywood wannabee Chris will certainly go along. I think that Paulie has turned over a completely new life after his mother and cancer, so I think he would probably be willing to go along. Bobby is into train sets and eating, he and Janice would certainly go along. Jr is an old man with 'mental problems' and would never be accepted back into mob life so you know he will go along.....The only problem I see is Sil.

Again, I think Paulie is sort of introspective like Tony and I could see him truly repenting for his wrong doings. I think that Sil can also SOMEWHAT be classified as introspective/repentive which is why I think that he too COULD be a candidate to fly the coop with Tony. But.....I've had some bad feelings towards Sil since he took Adrianna out. I didn't like the fact that he called her a b*tch before he killed her, I think this scene might be a perfect representation of why Sil is 'foul' and deserves to be killed off. B/c I don't that the now softer hearted Tony/Paulie would have treated her like that. I mean, she WAS completely tore up about what happened. She could have been treated with more respect, I bet Pussy would have done so.

When it comes to Chris....no one in the show seems to be more detracted from the life than he. He said that he loved the life b/c of the oath that they all took but now he doesn't feel that the others live by that oath. I don't think Chris is a hateful/evil person and I feel he is always expanding his consiousness and is a prime candidate to seek forgiveness for his wrong doings. I think he would leave the life at the drop of a hat AND I think he deserves the opportunity to do so.

But Sil.......nah, he hasn't shown repent/remorse like Tony and Paulie have. I think he is only saveable by God himself, Sil is a dead man.

I think the rest of them will somehow fly the coop w/ Tony. It IS all about the ducks, fly away Tony, fly away!!!

Isn't being a rat the lowest for of life for guys like Sil, Tony, and Paulie? If so, I'd think that by the 'bitch' statement Sil was just showing his resentment for Adrianna's kind...you know...rats.

I really don't see Paulie ever getting out of the life, he just doesn't strike me as that type of person. If anybody wouldn't be OK with leaving the life it'd seem like it'd be him. And honestly I feel that Tony has come too far and done too much to just step away from the Mafia. I just can't see it all unfolding that simply.

Paulie is worried about Paulie, noone or nothing else. I think that Sil is one bad guy. Yes, his killing of Ade put a cork in the bottle on that for me. But again, regarding Tony, think about the scene right after he picked the fight with his young driver. Remember he went in the bathroom and threw up. But he went to the mirror and smiled "I'm back." He has his remorseful moments, but they're just moments.

No way, remember how concerned he was about Bobby's eye injury? Tony didn't give a crap but Paulie was obviously concerned. I think Paulie is ripe for a 180 turnaround in his life.

EDIT-Paulie however was NOT concerned about Janice,etc after the incident on the faulty carnival ride. Or at the least he didn't feel he was responsible. Still, having cancer and facing death can change someone's whole outlook on life. Tony is a perfect example of course.

Wasn't Paulie one of the first ones to hop up and say 'Kill Vito' after they found out he was the one giving the head not getting it?

Ya, you're right, but wasn't that before the incident w/ his 'mother'?

It was certainly before he got cancer.

EDIT-Nevermind, Paulie did say that about Vito AFTER he found out about his mother but it was before he found out about his cancer. Paulie has had two life changing experiences in a very short period of time. The homophobic Paulie COULD represent the old Paulie and not the new. Either way, Paulie is going through a lot of changes. Re watch the scenes w/ him when Tony is in the hospital, the thing with his mother really scattered his brain. When he said that about Vito he was in that same scattered state of mind.

EDIT2-Actually, I think he says to Tony something along the lines of.... 'how much betrayal can I take? First my mother, now this(Vito).' Tony kind of gives him a what the fu*k are you talking about type look and I think that's when Paulie started to change his attitudes on the two issues. He is of course no longer angry with his 'mother' and he hasn't exhibited any hostile feelings about Vito since then either.

The point I was making about Paulie is that he seems to think that everyone should be concerned about his plight in life to the exclusion of other things. Remember in the hospital hallway how Tony had to point out to him about the little kid with cancer. Then how he was boohooing about his mother not being his mother. There are other incidences also.

I think Tony's moment in the bathroom was a natural one. The man was almost dead, he's down and out, then he kicks some huge guy's butt to prove that he's still a man. Ok, not exactly the renaissance approach, and not something you want to teach your kids to do, but come on. And while I agree that Paulie is a whiny old lady who worries about himself and himself alone, I DO think that his cancer will help him better put things in perspective. His concern for Bobby's eye injury showed us that.

I think Tony was trying to show everyone he was still the boss. Remember he was looking around for someone to beat up and all he saw was middle aged fat dudes (Paulie, Patsy, and Bobby)? Perry was the logical choice because he was young and strong, Tony had to show that the gunshot wound wouldn't make him weak.