Solozzo made a fatal mistake in underestimating Michael. But Sol sealed his own fate by making a bigger mistake earlier: letting Sonny’s show of greed convince him that Sonny would make a deal even if he killed Vito:

The drugs proposition was between Vito and Sol. But, Vito had Tess, Clem, Sonny, Fredo and Tom present. Why? I believe it was because Vito knew how drugs profits would stimulate greed, and tempt even his own most loyal people (N.B: the novel says Sonny wanted the deal to get out from under his father’s thumb and get some action on his own; and Sol knew Tom wanted the deal). Vito wanted all of them to hear his “no” at the same time—and he wanted Sol to see all of them hearing his “no”—so that none of them would be tempted to try to circumvent Vito’s will, and to preclude Sol from approaching them individually.

Sure enough, Sonny betrayed his greed at the meeting, encouraging Sol to kill Vito. But, Sol should have realized that shooting Vito backed Sonny into a corner: With all those witnesses to Vito’s “no,” he could never forego vengeance and go along with the deal without looking to the others that he betrayed his father for money. Sonny instinctively (and correctly) knew that he had no choice but to forego drug profits and to kill Sol to avenge his father.

In II, Michael tells Pentangeli that his father taught him to “think as others around you think.” If Sol had followed that advice, he would have realized that killing Vito would be the one thing to assure that Sonny, despite his show of greed, would never go along with his deal.

Your thoughts?

TB, it's beyond me why in the world Sollozzo would think that his murder (or even attempted murder) of Vito would not enrage Sonny beyond all reason. Even though Sollozzo tells Tom that Sonny's coming after him with everything he's got would be Sonny's initial reaction, Sollozzo failed to realize that that would be Sonny's lifetime reaction. He goes on to tell Tom that one can't reason with Sonny. Even in his phone call to Sonny, Sollozzo acknowledged Sonny's temper... a fatal lack of understanding.

Sollozzo made 2 serious mistakes.

1) He vastly underestimated Sonny's nature. No way was he going to negotiate a deal with Sollozzo.

2} He vastly overestimated Tom's ability to calm Sonny down. In all fairness,Tom did advise Sonny that "if your father dies,you make the deal" as well as telling Sonny 'I think we should listen to what he has to say" referring to the meeting that Sol wanted to set up, but as we know,he was wasting his breath.

I think Sollozzo really believed that the backing of the other Dons would protect him. Granted,as a non-made guy,he could not have unilaterally hit Vito without some kind of approval,but his biggest error was in overestimating his own position as the indispensable link between the supply and distribution operations. As we see later during the 5 Families meeting with Vito,the absence of Sollozzo made absolutely no impact on the decision to organize the drug trade nationwide.
No question that Vito had to go. the potentially enormous profits to be made were much bigger than one Don,even one as respected as Vito.

I do have a question though. Doesn't the execution of a sitting Boss require Commission approval? Usually the accepted justification is some type of self defense,i.e., "he is planning to hit me" or some other overtly egregious offense against 1 or more fellow Dons. In this case, Vito didn't attack anyone or do anything of the sort. He merely obstructed. So what was the justification used to give Soll the green light?

My take, for what it is worth!

• Whilst Sonny's blunder may have been catalyst in bringing Sollozzo and Barzini's [“it was Barzini all along”] plans forward especially with Vito handing Luca on a platter
• It seems to me Sollozzo, Barzini / Tattaglia did not have Plan B There's much they can learn from the Great man Roth!
• Sollozzo and Barzini undoubtedly thought Vito would be dead [five shots and he's still alive] Game on!
• Sollozzo's evil smugness, when Sollozzo told Tom to talk to “Sonny, the caporegimes Tessio, Fat Clemenza and the other two kids” believing Vito was dead and of course Luca was already dead
• My view, the above including Sollozzo's “bad luck for me and bad luck for you [Tom] if you don't make that deal!” and later Sollozzo's meeting with Michael was just a ploy buying time until the murder of Vito Then Vito's Judges and Politicians could be bought over
• I believe it was not about Sollozzo “letting Sonny’s show of greed convince him that Sonny would make a deal even if he killed Vito:” as Sollozzo and Barzini were banking on Vito's death, then canvassing the Judges and Politicians who were in Vito's pocket
• I believe Sollozzo and Barzini would have known “No way was he [Sonny] going to negotiate a deal with Sollozzo” with or without Sonny's greed after Vito's murder
• If Vito had died, I doubt any Judges, Politicians would remain loyal to the Corleones especially with Vito dead and Barzini offering them a lot more money - “all our people are business men, their loyalty is based on that”
• Sure thing “No question that Vito had to go” either way - Yes or No

However when Vito survived his two murder attempts and ”Solozzo made a fatal mistake in underestimating Michael” Bring it on!

Very good point.


Commission's approval needed to whack a Don is another of those convenient myths of the Mafia (like "the Mafia doesn't deal drugs"). Albert Anastasia whacked Vincent Mangano in '51, showed up at the next Commission meeting and took Mangao's seat--and no one said boo to him. Vito Genovese attempted to kill Frank Costello in '57, forcing his retirement so Genovese could take his seat; and Genovese whacked Albert Anastasia that same year, making way for Carlo Gambino--neither had Commission approval. Gotti whacked Castellano in '85, without the Commission's approval, although he and Gravano did discuss discuss their plans with some higher-ups in some other families.

Tom did calm Sonny down He agreed to wait until Michael proposal to kill them
Sollozo's ploy buying time would have worked if he had waited

convenient myths like Michael got Commission approval for baptism killing of four Dons

tGreat points, Turnbull. I agree that the main reasons Chin had for whacking Gotti were that he and Paul were old friends,and he perceived Gotti as a piece of garbage unworthy of the Boss seat. "Commission approval" didn't enter into it at all, in spite of the token attempts that Gotti made.

As Capri posted Tom did calm Sonny down

I reckon Sollozzo estimating Tom's ability to calm Sonny down was the only one correctly surmised, out of all the over and under estimating

No doubt all their tactics was just a ploy buying time
They were never going to or needed to negotiate anything with Sonny Every tactic was stalling for time

The key was killing Pop Vito's politicians would go over to the highest bidder as more than anything it was always the money

Sollozzo's mistake same as Roth's, hiring assassins who couldn't shoot fish in a barrel!

Sonny correctly surmised Sollozzo's tricks

The promise the deal is so good he can't refuse but the tactic was just stalling for more time to kill Vito Third time lucky!

Sollozzo tells Michael "All I want is a truce" but can't guarantee no more attempts on Vito's life [There must have been truth serum! in that wine] Go figure!

Yes, Sol was remarkably truthful to Tom and Michael--with one exception:

He tells Tom, "Sonny was hot for my deal, right? And you knew it's the right thing to do." RIGHT.

"The Tattaglias are behind me with all of their men. The other families will go along with anything that prevents an all-out war." TRUE.

He tells Michael: "this is terrible --it's not the way I wanted things to go at all. It should've never happened.." TRUE. He intended to make a deal with Vito, and then intended to kill Vito.

"What guarantees [about not bothering Vito again] can I give you? I'm the hunted one. You think too much of me, kid...I'm not that clever. TRUE. He can't give Michael a guarantee because he wants Vito dead.

(Earlier, in the car): "I swear on my children he [Vito won't be bothered again]." FALSE.