I think he may have been looking at 12 years at the most, at the time. He says he didn't think his indictment was that big of a deal and seemed to be under the impression that he'd be coming home after keeping his mouth shut, and just get back to business. Then he claims the Long John story, which I think he just says as a way to save face from being a rat. I don't think Mortorano lied to him, I think either way, Caramandi was in trouble.