Hello all I signed up awhile ago but it took awhile to verify my account so this is my first. I've been reading a lot of posts here though. I really like everyone's insight into these movies as I've seen them many times (not the 3rd one though I can't get into it).

As for Fredo, in short, I am basically in agreement with Turnbull here. His first post pretty much sums up the motivation for his betrayal. I would say that is enough evidence to provide the motivation for his betrayal (circumstantial? Yes, but still evidence).

I just don't see how anyone other than Fredo (or Fredo telling someone to do it) could have opened the drapes. Ola probably told Fredo to open the drapes on the night of the party, and then either Fredo or someone that Fredo told to do it, opened the drapes. What other explanation is even possible?

So, if he opened the drapes, what exactly did he think was gonna happen if it was NOT a hit? Ok, he's stupid, but is he that stupid? I have a hard time buying it. Fredo may have been dumb, but he was still a mobster. I think he was fully capable of putting 2 and 2 together and he knew what he was doing.

Fredo was weak, but at times showed charm (how he worked the room as the party planner in Havana), and was actually able to get out of Havana alive on his own (that takes some smarts and/or balls even if he had help from Roth's people to get out). He showed some signs of being "shmarter" than given credit for.

Also, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the film makes it clear how ELSE Fredo could have possibly betrayed Mike if it wasn't to set up the hit? So what exactly did Fredo think he was doing, that he knew was something of a betrayal to Mike, but not a hit?

If Fredo simply talked business with Roth/Ola about "closing the deal fast", what exactly does that even mean? How else would Fredo "help with the negotiations and close the deal fast"?

Eliminating one of the parties so you can make the deal yourself is the only logical explanation as to how he could help "close the deal fast".

So, despite what he said about him saying he didn't think it was going to be a hit to Michael, I think he simply had to know. I don't know how ELSE Fredo could have betrayed him.

I will admit that he did sound sincere when he said that to Mike, and earlier in Havana when he lied to Mike you can tell he was lying. So that would indicate that maybe he is telling the truth when he said he didn't think that it was going to be a hit.

However, I simply can't give him the benefit of the doubt because there really is no other reasonable explanation for what else he could possibly think was going to happen to Michael. The only reasonable explanation to me is that Fredo was lying.