I agree that, if Sonny had kept his mouth shut, the other families would not have gone along with a hit on Vito for fear of starting a war. But I believe Sol would have attempted the hit on Vito anyway, and presented the other families with a fait accompli. If he succeeded, there was still a chance that Hagen could convince Sonny to come to terms and avoid a destructive war. If he failed, the Corleones would come after Sol and Tatt, not the rest of them. His fait accompli would put the other families in the position of supporting him to avoid a war--as he told Michael, "The Tattaglias are behind me with all their people. The other families will go along with anything that prevents a war." He was probably right.
TB, if it had ever come to that, why would the other families not have simply cut Sollozzo loose? Wouldn't that have been a lot less risky and expensive than doubling down on the Sollozzo gambit? Or are you suggesting that, given the huge profit potential in the narcotics trade, that they would not have been able to resist the temptation to get rich, by sticking with Sollozzo instead?
Sol was not strong enough to present Vito's death as a fait accompli to Barzini. Had he done so, Barzini and Tattaglia would have had to choose between a full scale war, or cutting their losses by offering Sol up as a sacrificial lamb to the Corleones, and just waiting for the right opening.
My sense of it as well. Then again, not being a gangster, the willingness to trade blood for treasure doesn't actually occur to me very instinctively.
~ Q
