Hello all, I'm new to this site and have been spending the last few hours with the search button and getting a ton of new perspectives and information on the Godfather novel and movies. A lot of great material here.

An area of particular intrigue for me is the subject of Tessio and his treachery against Michael. It troubles me in a way. It's too simple, the possible outcomes not in any way good for him. I put my thinking hat on for it and came up with this analysis and possible scenario whereby Tessio plans to come out on top. (If I've inadvertently copied another's idea on this, my apologies. My searches yielded no results like this.)

Toward the end of the movie and the novel, Vito intimates to Michael that the one who approaches you with the deal is the traitor. Shortly thereafter, Vito passes away; Tom and Michael debate on the identity of the traitor. They narrow it down to three: Clemenza, Tessio and Carlo. Tom pegs Carlo as the traitor, and we find out that he indeed was earlier on with Sonny.

After the funeral, Tessio approaches Michael with a proposal to meet with Barzini to negotiate a peace deal between them. A deal to be hosted on his own turf, with his own people, to ensure security. As a capo, it would not have been Tessio's place to attempt to deal himself into a play between the Dons of two families; as a long time veteran of the Family ranks, he would know that.

He would also know, being a veteran of organized crime, particularly Italian crime families and omerta, that the act he intended to commit against Michael is nothing short of treachery. He would know that no Don would harbor a traitor in his ranks for any reason. Not Michael, not Vito...and not Barzini. Greed often blinds men to analytical and tactical thought; they often don't think ahead to the long term consequences of their actions. As a Sicilian, however, Tessio likely would've thought about the ramifications of the deal with Barzini and what it would entail for his immediate future.

The surface narrative of the novel and movie leads us to believe that Tessio went to Barzini to make a deal to save his own interests. He offers to bring Michael down, and in return, he saves his own interests and keeps himself from going down with the Corleones when Michael inevitably drives them into the ground. In the aftermath, Tessio takes control of the Corleone family, or what's left of it, and forms an alliance with Barzini.

A huge problem exists in that scenario for Tessio, and I can't help but think that he would've realized it. If he succeeds in having Michael whacked, he is now officially a traitor to his Don. As stated, no Don would willingly harbor a traitor in his ranks. What can be done with you can be done to you, as the saying goes. Tessio's days as the leader of the Corleones would be numbered, as has been stated on the board. If Clemenza didn't put the pieces together and whack Tessio for treachery, Barzini would have out of caution and to consolidate his power. How does Tessio come out on the other side intact?

The answer is to make a few assumptions and go below the surface narrative. We assume that Tessio is the one to approach Barzini initially with the peace initiative. He offers to serve Michael up on a silver platter. Tessio is worried that Michael is going to want to go to war now that his father is dead, and he'll drag everyone down with him. He'll leave the Corleone family barren and decimated.

He won't do the job himself, he says. It has to appear that Barzini orchestrated the hit on Michael, that he approached Tessio with the peace offering as a way to get Michael out in the open. Tessio did the best he could, but couldn't save Michael. The tradeoff is that Tessio gets to keep his territory in Brooklyn, and Barzini can then move in on the remaining Corleone holdings. They form an informal alliance to be the two top Dons in New York. Barzini would've easily seen the opportunity to take the entire Corleone portfolio into his own. Why should he let Tessio keep what he has when Barzini clearly has the superior force? Blinded by greed, he eagerly agrees to the peace meeting as a result.

Now, Tessio plays the other end and approaches Michael with the peace offering; he doesn't state as much, but the implication is that Barzini came to Tessio with the meeting request. Barzini made the initial contact, he says. Tessio says he was able to get concessions on Michael's behalf, such as holding the meeting in Brooklyn, on his own turf. In that way, Tessio says, he can ensure Michael's complete security in the matter.

“It screws up all my arrangements.” Tessio's slip of the tongue when he's found out. What were these so called arrangements? A trip to the machine gun toll booth perhaps? The scenario: Michael and Tessio ride out to the meet and come upon a toll booth. Machine gunners pop out and pump the car full of lead. Tessio is the lone survivor, perhaps wounded and “mistaken for dead in the ambush”...but Michael and the men in the car are actually dead. Shades of Sonny...and a Barzini calling card.

Tessio phones it in and orders up a platoon of men to come for him. They ride out to where the meet was meant to take place and find Barzini. The accusation is leveled. Barzini plays innocent (which he is, this time), but the pleas fall on deaf ears. A firefight erupts between Barzini and Corleone troops, and Barzini is taken down. In one fell swoop, Tessio has taken down the heads of the two most powerful families in New York. All of it without any heat being brought down on himself, and the chance to display his own leadership abilities. A major power vacuum has been created, one which Tessio can easily see himself filling up. As a high ranking Corleone leader, he is positioned to ascend to Don. He takes the throne, and the Barzini holdings are ripe for the pickings. He's in a perfect position to take them too: on the heels of Barzini's “treachery”, it's a perfect opportunity to go to war and seize power.

If Tessio succeeds in this endeavor, which is ultimately to absorb Barzini's holdings and assets, he is now the de facto head of the two largest crime families in New York. In effect, the Barzini family has been absorbed and taken over by the Corleone family. This would put him in the ultimate position of power: the chance to accede to the title of capo de tutti capi.

Under the assumption that he was able to secure the loyalties of the Corleone upper echelon (Hagen, Clemenza, Neri, et al) early on after Michael's demise, then Tessio truly has made it to the top. He appoints Clemenza as consigliere, Neri and Rocco as capos (Neri to take over Tessio's regime, Rocco to take over Clemenza's), and Tom as the family lawyer. Tessio was always smarter...perhaps this was meant to be his smartest move of all.

Of course, the fatal flaw in the plan is that Tessio severely underestimates Michael's cunning and instinct. He ultimately pays for his mistake with his life. It's a recurring mistake that numerous people make with regard to Michael.