Originally posted by Don Sonny Corleone:
...Lets use Apple's plan for a minute- Fredo,upon Anthony leaving the boat, knows he's going to die(which he did know 
)He then simply gets off the boat.He now knows his life is in danger and is going to try to leave the dangerous place(the compound)Mike wont let him.Now that he's in that situation, he constantly has to look over his shoulder.
I'm not saying a brilliant guy like Freddie came up with this all at once. He knew when Anthony left, but if he truely did not want to face death, he could have thought this through and ended the trip early, before Neri had the chance to kill him. Except that Fredo didn't leave the boat because he didn't know.
And again...you're giving this dimwit credit for having the following though process the moment his nephew is called away:
"Uh, oh...this looks bad I think it's a trap, Al's going to kill me once Anthony is out of sight. I'd better get outa here but WAIT...now I realize Michael wants me dead, but where am I going to go I know they won't let me off the compound oh, well it looks like there's no escaping it now I may as well let Al take me out on the lake, blow me away and dump my body overboard because it's gonna happen sooner or later and by the way I'll use that Hail Mary thing as a final prayer before dying instead of just to catch a fish...."
Yes, DSC - next time I watch the movie I'll look for all that on Fredo's face...since John Cazale being the excellent actor that he was, would surely have conveyed it.
To think what I've been missing all these years....
And by the way....once that boat hit the water, there was no escape for Fredo whether he knew or didn't know what was going on. This was gonna happen. Ending the trip early to prolong his life (had he known, which he didn't) is simply laughable.
Apple
PS - Fredo didn't know.
