I would be VERY afraid. Yes the underlying numbers all look good... consumer confidence, unemplouyment, car production and the stock market, but I think there are a lot os smoke and mirrors that could turn this recovery into a catastrophe.

First and foremost, the stock market is due for a "correction" and we may be seeing the beginning of it right now. With the Fed hlding interest rates to virtually zero, and with the dismal situation in the Euro zone, there are few better placrs for investors to put their money. Nobody wants cash sitting around making 1%, and there is no stampede to buy up land or stocks in Greece or Spain (although if I had cash I would buy property there cause it will come back).

In the US it is true unemolpyment is down, but the level of employment is not all that great. Incomes are not rising fast enough, and people may be "employed" but many are under-employed, and the median household income does not but what the median household income bough in the 1950's.

If the market starts dropping, irrational thinking could tank it, and then we might see people out there trying to put what they can in bonds, while others start trying harder to borrow, which in turn would mean the rates would go up and therr would be hyper inflation. Throw in the debt to China, and the fact that china seems to be buying everything that is or is not nailed down on the planet, and we could have a real mess on our hands.

In short, we are not out of the woods by any means.


"Io sono stanco, sono imbigliato, and I wan't everyone here to know, there ain't gonna be no trouble from me..Don Corleone..Cicc' a port!"

"I stood in the courtroom like a fool."

"I am Constanza: Lord of the idiots."