Well this morning shows why I don't like to pick winners before the nominations are announced. I would've figured Affleck and Bigelow would be the front-runners for Best Director but BOTH DIDN'T EVEN GET NOMINATED. Total shocker there.

Leo of course didn't get in. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK is the first movie since REDS (1981) to earn a nomination in every acting category. DeNiro's first nod since CAPE FEAR.

Academy Award Nominee Bradley Cooper is just too weird for me to say out loud.

I would suggest Jones will win Supporting Actor won, but DeNiro could be the surprise. In fact I'm afraid of seriously picking against an overperforming son of a bitch like SLP in general (while ZERO DARK THIRTY underperformed.) The voters loved SLP apparently.

For Director, my gut says Spielberg will win his 3rd Directing Oscar for LINCOLN. But could Lee spoil? Could Russell win?

Another shocker: THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. Zero nods.