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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#674294
11/05/12 11:04 PM
11/05/12 11:04 PM
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Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,769 Massachusetts, USA
123JoeSchmo
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,769
Massachusetts, USA
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Nate silver isn't exactly the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree. The last person I'd trust to predict this election is him. You would trust Dick Morris more? Haha not in a million years Ronnie Frankly both sides are spinning it this to the point where I don't trust anyone. Not even Rasmussen or RCP. I'm just gonna wait and see and whatever happens, happens.
"Don't ever go against the family again. Ever"- Michael Corleone
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#674295
11/05/12 11:12 PM
11/05/12 11:12 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145 East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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In '08, then-Republican Governor Charlie Crist extended Early Voting in Florida because of the overflooding lines. Which is good, I support encouragement of voting in a Democracy like ours where we regularly take it so much for granted, it treat it like fucking Jury Duty.
I know why assholes suppress votes. They obviously want to win, and if your ethics you leave at home like your keychain, but honestly you only do that if you're losing or you're afraid of losing. Democrats did it in Texas in 1960, maybe Illinois* too. Florida 2000 needed the Supreme Court. I've read an argument the same happened in Ohio by the GOP in '04.
Elections come and go. Presidents come and go. Your right to vote is eternal and guaranteed Constitutionally unless you're a covicted felon (which I sorta disagree with but I disgress) or a society just gives it up out of apathy.
Then again that would mean putting the belief of Democracy and Freedom above self partisanship, and unfortunately you're more likely to find a whore in a convent.
*=I say maybe only because many years ago I once read a study some amateur had done in comparing the voting rolls and he claimed that despite the legend of Mayor Daley getting graveyards to vote for JFK, it was more or less clean. So he claimed. Texas however, Nixon got screwed.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#674298
11/05/12 11:16 PM
11/05/12 11:16 PM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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On his little map graphic on his blog, he's now got Florida leaning Obama. And I have trouble accepting that. I know he's computing early voting totals in I guess, but I'm sorry I can't really buy that at the moment. But who knows?
Anyway Silver is on Colbert tonight.
Florida may get interesting. The voter suppression may be backfiring. Several reports state that voters are so mad down there at the Republican Governor for cutting early voting, they vow to wait online all day and night if necessary. You could have more Republican voters say "F" the wait tomorrow, than Democrats. There should not be long lines here in Florida because half the state has already voted. The drama is in Miami/Dade, no surprise, no surprise, where the Obama constituents live anyway. The Governor cut the number of days of early voting from 14 to 8. 8 is sufficient and I blame the people who waited until the very last day of early voting to create drama.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: 123JoeSchmo]
#674300
11/05/12 11:24 PM
11/05/12 11:24 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145 East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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Haha not in a million years Ronnie Frankly both sides are spinning it this to the point where I don't trust anyone. Not even Rasmussen or RCP. I'm just gonna wait and see and whatever happens, happens.[/quote] I guess I'm testy about the shit Silver got was that 4 years ago, when FiveThirtyEight was starting to becoming known and just right before he became toast of the town and got that nice NYT gig, I e-mailed him a question about something I didn't understand and he actually replied, politely and thoroughly. As a stat whiz, he could've been a total dick at my ignorance of statistics and show off his big Math Dick, but he didn't. And I appreciated that. Plus he seems to try to be legitimate with his ever evolving, self-correcting formulas. (And to be fair, he did great in '08, only getting Missouri wrong if I remember correctly and that was a razor-thin toss up state.) Most of these pundits, I don't exactly get fired up defending them whenever they're criticized. Why should I? They're paid to be clowns and make (usually wrong) predictions on TV. They're grown ups. Silver was just some baseball nerd who made some cash selling a formula he devised for that and found himself trying to apply stats/math to elections as well, and found his knack. Good for him. So yeah that's why I get pissy when somebody dismissed him as equal to useless sacks of shit like Hannity and Paul Begala. What do those two hacks offer other than propaganda for their army's sheep?
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Skinny_Vinny]
#674302
11/05/12 11:28 PM
11/05/12 11:28 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145 East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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The Governor cut the number of days of early voting from 14 to 8. 8 is sufficient and I blame the people who waited until the very last day of early voting to create drama. Why yes, your very favorite people at it again Skinny, our local Welsh Astronaut, always vigilant. (Why cut it by 6 days? Why in such a contested election that surely would spark high voter turn-out? Why?) Shit even Crist blasted Rick Scott for that decision. (Skinny, don't be predictable and dismiss Crist because of his alleged closet case homosexuality.) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/04..._n_2073661.html
Last edited by ronnierocketAGO; 11/05/12 11:35 PM.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#674315
11/06/12 12:38 AM
11/06/12 12:38 AM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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There should not be long lines here in Florida because half the state has already voted.
If the wait was up to 8 hours when 1/2 the state voted during the 8 days of early voting, explain to me how there will be no lines tomorrow when the other 1/2 of the state votes in 1 day. Thanks for responding Lou. Several things. Mainly, early voting here is an absentee ballot. I showed up at the location and they asked for ID(which I have no problem doing although it's said to be "suppression"). I filled out paperwork and signed it. All early voters do. Then they had to print out a six page ballot, specifically for my congressional district. Tomorrow's process is a little easier because there are more locations. You should not here about any problems. People should not have waited until the last day of early voting. But they always do, if you give them 15 days or 8 days of early voting.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Skinny_Vinny]
#674319
11/06/12 12:54 AM
11/06/12 12:54 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,389 Staten Island / New Jersey
Just Lou
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,389
Staten Island / New Jersey
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There should not be long lines here in Florida because half the state has already voted.
If the wait was up to 8 hours when 1/2 the state voted during the 8 days of early voting, explain to me how there will be no lines tomorrow when the other 1/2 of the state votes in 1 day. Thanks for responding Lou. Several things. Mainly, early voting here is an absentee ballot. I showed up at the location and they asked for ID(which I have no problem doing although it's said to be "suppression"). I filled out paperwork and signed it. All early voters do. Then they had to print out a six page ballot, specifically for my congressional district. Tomorrow's process is a little easier because there are more locations. You should not here about any problems. People should not have waited until the last day of early voting. But they always do, if you give them 15 days or 8 days of early voting. Fair enough. We shall see.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#674321
11/06/12 01:14 AM
11/06/12 01:14 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145 East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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Amusing anecdote: Apparently in Mass., Michael Dukakis is campaigning door by door for the local/state Democratic candidates. This detail caught my attention, however. Mr. Dukakis, who teaches at Northeastern University in Boston and loves mentoring young people, has also been helping fire up the troops who are canvassing for President Obama in New Hampshire. In a phone call to young Obama workers the other day, he offered tips on what to say as they went door to door.
And then he blurted out this: “I owe you all an apology,” he said as about 20 young people listened on speakerphone. “If I’d beaten Bush 1, you’d have never heard of Bush 2 and we wouldn’t be in this mess, so blame me.” http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/...-for-democrats/~I like the honest candor, but but no offense Mike, but...I can't imagine you as President. Neither did rest of the country.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: afsaneh77]
#674343
11/06/12 04:15 AM
11/06/12 04:15 AM
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 2,418 Bar Vitelli, Queens, NY
Signor Vitelli
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 2,418
Bar Vitelli, Queens, NY
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I just want to vote and get this damn thing over with already. Yesterday evening, in the space of an hour and a half, I was invaded by no less than four unwanted political phone calls. Some were robo-calls, some were actual people on the line. I didn't give a damn. They were intruding on my privacy. They always manage to call around what they believe is your dinner time (deliberately), and after the first of these annoyances, I let my answering machine take the call. Or, I would pick up the telephone, and when I heard the recording or person on the other end, simply slam down the receiver. Even though I am on the "Do Not Call" registry for my state (which is a fucking joke, believe me), you cannot opt out of, or avoid receiving political annoyance calls. WHY???? If I spend another sleepless night - which is appearing more and more likely - I may try to get to local polling place early and, after I vote, come back home and get some well-deserved sleep. Honestly, the older I get, the more I see elections as not voting for someone as much as voting against the other guy. Some call it "the lesser of the two weasels", but I don't know anymore. Make of it what you will. Signor V.
"For me, there's only my wife..."
"Sure I cook with wine - sometimes I even add it to the food!"
"When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where madness lies?"
"It was a grass harp... And we listened."
"Do any human beings ever realize life while they live it? Every, every minute?"
"No. Saints and poets, maybe... they do some."
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Signor Vitelli]
#674345
11/06/12 04:30 AM
11/06/12 04:30 AM
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 5,602 Yunkai
afsaneh77
Mother of Dragons
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Mother of Dragons
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 5,602
Yunkai
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Honestly, the older I get, the more I see elections as not voting for someone as much as voting against the other guy. SV, this has been what I've been doing. It's just as important to vote against a candidate as it is to vote for a candidate. Imagine if Iranians were motivated to vote against Ahmadinejad. The world would've been better off. Many decided he is no different than the other guy 7 years ago. I'd like to know what they think now. Anyway, happy voting and making a difference! I hope you get some sound sleep after this tiresome election season.
"Fire cannot kill a dragon." -Daenerys Targaryen, Game of Thrones
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