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Re: Election 2012
[Re: klydon1]
#674142
11/05/12 02:10 PM
11/05/12 02:10 PM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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There's been a lot of talk about PA being in play. It's not. The GOP last won here in 1988 and in EVERY presidential election since the Republican candidate claimed that PA was a toss up and visited the state, claiming to win it. If it were seriously a toss up, Obama would have been here, not just Clinton or Biden.
If Obama wins PA by just 2.5% points, will that convince that the state was at least in play?
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: klydon1]
#674149
11/05/12 02:31 PM
11/05/12 02:31 PM
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Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,769 Massachusetts, USA
123JoeSchmo
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,769
Massachusetts, USA
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My prediction is that Obama wins and garners 300+ electoral votes. I think he'll take Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado. He might steal Florida too.
The only person who'll feel the pain of a possible Romney defeat worse than Mitt is Karl Rove, who'll have to explain to his deep pocketed pals, from whom he's collected billions, how he lost. That's way too high. No way Obama gets 300. Romney will win Virginia and Colorado and Florida. Ohio is the toss up. If Obama wins he'll be in the 270s at most. My final prediction- Romney 277 Obama 261
"Don't ever go against the family again. Ever"- Michael Corleone
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: The Italian Stallionette]
#674150
11/05/12 02:32 PM
11/05/12 02:32 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,389 Staten Island / New Jersey
Just Lou
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,389
Staten Island / New Jersey
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Does ANYONE think there is a good chance that Romney wins popular and Obama wins electoral? Because at this rate, if the Elec. Vote estimates are correct, Obama wins regardless of popular right?
Yes, Obama still wins just like Bush did in 2000. The scenario is definitely possible, but unlikely because Obama needs turnout to win the election. If for some reason he gets low turnout and loses the popular vote, more than likely he loses the election too. There's nothing to suggest he won't get the turnout, but stranger things have happened. Edit: One other thing. Obama is probably going to lose several hundred thousand votes in NY and NJ due to people not voting because of the storm. While it won't affect the outcome in these states, it will slightly affect the popular vote.
Last edited by Just Lou; 11/05/12 02:35 PM.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#674152
11/05/12 02:34 PM
11/05/12 02:34 PM
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 25,984 California
The Italian Stallionette
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Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 25,984
California
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Does ANYONE think there is a good chance that Romney wins popular and Obama wins electoral? Because at this rate, if the Elec. Vote estimates are correct, Obama wins regardless of popular right?
Yes, Obama still wins just like Bush did in 2000. The scenario is definitely possible, but unlikely because Obama needs turnout to win the election. If for some reason he gets low turnout and loses the popular vote, more than likely he loses the election too. There's nothing to suggest he won't get the turnout, but stranger things have happened. I really would prefer that does NOT happen but you know what they say about paybacks. TIS
"Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind. War will exist until that distant day when the conscientious objector enjoys the same reputation and prestige that the warrior does today." JFK
"War is over, if you want it" - John Lennon
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: The Italian Stallionette]
#674155
11/05/12 02:37 PM
11/05/12 02:37 PM
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Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 11,797 Pennsylvania
klydon1
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Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 11,797
Pennsylvania
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Does ANYONE think there is a good chance that Romney wins popular and Obama wins electoral? Because at this rate, if the Elec. Vote estimates are correct, Obama wins regardless of popular right? TIS Yes. Popular vote is of no consequence nationally. That seems to be deadlocked though Obama seemingly has more avenues to electoral victory than Romney if the polls are accurate. If the EVs are split 269-269, the House decides and Romney would win. But in that event the Vice-President is selected by the Senate, and the Democrats could elect Biden, and then we'd have President Romney an Vice-president Biden. If the Senate is tied 50-50, then Biden casts the deciding vote.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: The Italian Stallionette]
#674157
11/05/12 02:38 PM
11/05/12 02:38 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,389 Staten Island / New Jersey
Just Lou
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,389
Staten Island / New Jersey
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I really would prefer that does NOT happen but you know what they say about paybacks. TIS If you listen to the Obama campaign, they have a much larger/better ground game than 2008, and expect a huge turnout. If you listen to the Romney campaign, Democratic enthusiasm is down, and they expect a much smaller turnout. Who knows. It will probably be somewhere in between.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: klydon1]
#674165
11/05/12 02:47 PM
11/05/12 02:47 PM
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Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 11,468 With Geary in Fredo's Brothel
dontomasso
Consigliere to the Stars
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Consigliere to the Stars
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 11,468
With Geary in Fredo's Brothel
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Both sides are spinning like crazy. I think Obama's firewall in th midwest will hold and he'll win with 277 to 290. I think he has Nevada and New Mexico in play, and to a lesser extent Colorado. If he wins Virginia or Florida, early, its game, set and match.
I do see a chance Obama could win a squeaker in the electoral college but lose the popular vote.
As anyone who reads my posts knows, I am pro- Obama, a total partisan, etc., but good lord will I be happy when this is over. THe constant advertising, e mails and facebook stuff is nuts.
"Io sono stanco, sono imbigliato, and I wan't everyone here to know, there ain't gonna be no trouble from me..Don Corleone..Cicc' a port!"
"I stood in the courtroom like a fool."
"I am Constanza: Lord of the idiots."
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#674174
11/05/12 03:00 PM
11/05/12 03:00 PM
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 2,881 The Jokers Social Club
DickNose_Moltasanti
BANNED
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BANNED
Underboss
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 2,881
The Jokers Social Club
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Both sides are spinning like crazy. I think Obama's firewall in th midwest will hold and he'll win with 277 to 290. I think he has Nevada and New Mexico in play, and to a lesser extent Colorado. If he wins Virginia or Florida, early, its game, set and match. New Mexico? Obama has a double digit lead there. Lou your right on that ^ doesn't Gold Ole' Mick Claim to be part Mexican or of his Hispanic Descent. I love his informerical l when he says " ill get people better jobs, i'll work with ya!" Like we're going to have a face to face sit down with the guy
Last edited by DickNose_Moltasanti; 11/05/12 03:01 PM.
Random Poster:"I'm sorry I didn't go to an Ivy-league school like you"
"Ah I actually I didn't. It's a nickname the feds gave the Genovese Family."
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#674178
11/05/12 03:02 PM
11/05/12 03:02 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,389 Staten Island / New Jersey
Just Lou
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 8,389
Staten Island / New Jersey
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Early vote totals for Florida up until Saturday night. Not too surprising Dem are ahead here. Saturday had a record turnout for early voting in Florida.
Dems 1,109,262 (46%) Reps 862,277 (35.75%) Inds 440,133 (18.25%)
TOTAL 2,411,672
Here is what is very surprising. Dems holding their own in asentee voting. Republicans usually blow Dems out here:
Absentee/mail-in totals:
Dems 806,310 Reps 885,675 Inds 365,736
TOTAL 2,057,721
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#674179
11/05/12 03:02 PM
11/05/12 03:02 PM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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PA will be won by about 2.5% points as well and that will make the GOP put more focus on that state in the future.
It's not going to happen. Take away 1 poll that shows the race tied, Obama has about 5 point lead there. Even Rasmussen's latest poll shows Obama with a 5 point lead. "Even" Rasmussen? Ok. Well, when did Rasmussen last update Pennsylvania? Oct 25? Over the weekend, about four different polls came out showing a tie in PA. Both campaigns believe those polls which is why they have spent unusual amount of time in PA over the weekend.
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