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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#673853
11/04/12 02:05 AM
11/04/12 02:05 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145 East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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It wasn't easy for Anne to tear down those Tiger Beat posters of Christie off her walls. Now this tweet made me laugh. Bill Maher: Looking forward to James Bond movie; Obama's like him cuz he's cool, has license to kill; and Mitt's like him cuz he's been 6 different guys
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#673855
11/04/12 02:12 AM
11/04/12 02:12 AM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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Romney was in Ohio on Friday and drew 20,000. He can't spend every day in Ohio. That state is already over-saturated.
The fact that sick old Bill Clinton has to be bothered spending all day in PA shows the Obama administration knows it could be a toss up. I'll bet the final NY Times poll on Monday or Tuesday puts PA in the toss up column.
Wisconsin has been fighting back since 2010. Biden was there with Clinton too. Another toss up state.
You can believe whatever you want, but the fact is Obama has an average poll lead of 5 points in both PA and WI, and 3 points in OH. There isn't a single poll out there showing Romney leading in any of them. That's a total of about 25 polls. More importantly, Obama has reached or exceeded 50% in many of the polls in all 3 states. Romney hasn't reached 50% in any. You can call these states toss-ups if you like, but it just isn't so. Be consistent. You can't say Romney going to PA is proof he gave up on OH then when I point out Clinton is spending lots of time in OH, you go back to quoting polls. What are we doing Lou? Looking at polls or looking at stops the campaigns make to determine where they think they are weak?
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#673870
11/04/12 03:10 AM
11/04/12 03:10 AM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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Be consistent. You can't say Romney going to PA is proof he gave up on OH then when I point out Clinton is spending lots of time in OH, you go back to quoting polls.
What are we doing Lou? Looking at polls or looking at stops the campaigns make to determine where they think they are weak?
I give up. You'll see Wednesday that PA, WI and OH were all within margin of error.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#673873
11/04/12 03:19 AM
11/04/12 03:19 AM
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 5,602 Yunkai
afsaneh77
Mother of Dragons
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Mother of Dragons
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 5,602
Yunkai
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It should be mentioned (if not already) that Christie was this year's RNC Keynote Speaker, a prestigious offer usually given by the nominee. So I guess that's why we were surprised when a media tycoon like Murdoch outright threatened him. (Why not just phone tap him like you do everybody else, Rupert?)
If Hearst was alive and tweeting, well no I can't compare him to Murdoch. Hearst was American at least. Well, this is not really surprising to me. Christie giving Obama praise is surprising, but this isn't. That's how GOP operates. That's how democratic agendas are in a deadlock in the House. They never compromise or work with dems, let alone praise them.
"Fire cannot kill a dragon." -Daenerys Targaryen, Game of Thrones
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#673874
11/04/12 03:19 AM
11/04/12 03:19 AM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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Be consistent. You can't say Romney going to PA is proof he gave up on OH then when I point out Clinton is spending lots of time in OH, you go back to quoting polls.
What are we doing Lou? Looking at polls or looking at stops the campaigns make to determine where they think they are weak?
I give up. Just to be clear, what do "toss up" or "in play" mean to you? To me it means the margin of victory ends up being 3% points or less.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#673914
11/04/12 10:27 AM
11/04/12 10:27 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145 East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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Assuming that we get re-election this week, care if we look at the crystal ball for '16?
No no don't worry, I won't be posting a "Election 2016" thread. Dear lord we all need a breather from this last cycle. But you know, there is no harm in speculation.
Biden would be the presumptive favorite for his party as Vice-President, but he'll be 73. It'll be Ego vs Age since he twice ran unsuccessfully for the top prize, would he be able to turn down this closest shot he'll ever get of winning the Oval Office for himself?
(God knows President Biden would be a goldmine for comedy wrtiers.)
Then one name that keeps popping up, regardless of who wins this week, is Cuomo. But let me throw out a crazy conspiracy theory.
What if...Hillary? What if she takes a breather after quitting as Secretary of State, then for the '14 mid-terms she comes back politically to campaign for state candidates, setting the stage for a possible 2nd national run in '16? She would have her claims to the retiring Obama's Presidency, but also if some bad shit happens in the 2nd term (Just ask Bubba), she could distance herself directly away from it. Of course she'll be 69, so there's that.
But regardless I think unless the economy really really kicks major ass in the 2nd term and not just slow but steady recovery, I think the '16 GOP nominee will be the favorite to win. If only because it's very hard to win 3 national elections in a row. Not impossible of course, but the odds are just against you.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#673917
11/04/12 11:49 AM
11/04/12 11:49 AM
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Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,769 Massachusetts, USA
123JoeSchmo
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,769
Massachusetts, USA
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Romney was in Ohio on Friday and drew 20,000. He can't spend every day in Ohio. That state is already over-saturated.
The fact that sick old Bill Clinton has to be bothered spending all day in PA shows the Obama administration knows it could be a toss up. I'll bet the final NY Times poll on Monday or Tuesday puts PA in the toss up column.
Wisconsin has been fighting back since 2010. Biden was there with Clinton too. Another toss up state.
You can believe whatever you want, but the fact is Obama has an average poll lead of 5 points in both PA and WI, and 3 points in OH. There isn't a single poll out there showing Romney leading in any of them. That's a total of about 25 polls. More importantly, Obama has reached or exceeded 50% in many of the polls in all 3 states. Romney hasn't reached 50% in any. You can call these states toss-ups if you like, but it just isn't so. FMWB just released a poll this morning showing Romeny with a one point lead in MI 47-46 Pitt Tribune has the race tied this morning at 47-47 Rasmussens last Ohio poll has the race tied at 49-49 (he's the only pollster not using a D+5 to D+7 skew in turnout and is therefore the most accurate) Most elections show late breaking voters go to the challenger when an incumbent is running. Every poll show Romney leading among independents. Romney still has an edge at this point. And while I think they both have a shot at winning, you're incorrect in assuming that the Romney campaign can't win in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. I'll repeat what I've been saying: this will be close and no one is running away with it.
Last edited by 123JoeSchmo; 11/04/12 11:54 AM.
"Don't ever go against the family again. Ever"- Michael Corleone
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: 123JoeSchmo]
#673927
11/04/12 12:57 PM
11/04/12 12:57 PM
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Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089 Brooklyn, New York
Dapper_Don
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089
Brooklyn, New York
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Here's what doesn't make sense Dap. The fact that the race is pretty much tied. But Obama has a slam dunk in the electoral college race. You got your statisitics from the Huffington Post: the only other website/blog just as liberal as NBC, and please don't try to tell me they aren't. Where are they based? New York City, otherwise known as the most liberal place on the planet.
Any accurate polling (such as Rasmussen) does not have Obama leading in swing states rather it has Romney up by four percent. Because NBC and Huff think that the Democratic turnout will be the same. It will not. This race is closer than ever. NYC is not the most Liberal place in the world. Rasmussen is well-known to lean-Republican, they even host GOP fundraisers for Christ's sake. LOL, are you serious? These are polls of polls! That means that they look at EVERY single poll from both sides (see above) and average them out to get a percentage for each candidate. Polling has nothing to do with the number of people who turned out last time, it is about likely voters now. Stats and probability, somebody I am very well-versed in both which I took numerous classes in Business school. For the record this is from 538 and Huff post which are both Polls of polls! This is the most overall accurate picture. You can choose to ignore it but the facts speak for themselves, even the GOP happy Fox news has the race tied. This is ridiculous, I am not going to debate the veracity of polls that are a survey of various polls put together. I cant wait till this is over. Let's just hold on tight till Tuesday and look at the final results.
Last edited by Dapper_Don; 11/04/12 01:05 PM.
Tommy Shots: They want me running the family, don't they know I have a young wife? Sal Vitale: (laughs) Tommy, jump in, the water's fine.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#673929
11/04/12 01:10 PM
11/04/12 01:10 PM
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 5,602 Yunkai
afsaneh77
Mother of Dragons
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Mother of Dragons
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 5,602
Yunkai
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I never thought it as a what if. It pretty much is going to happen. // I don't think this race is that close. Frankly, I'm not sure why even people consider anyone from GOP side, I remember Ronnie saying that anyone from GOP side would be buried by the consequences of GWB's era, economy collapse of 2009 and Iraq war for years to come. And yet, here we are, 4 years after all that and some think it's a good idea to put someone in the White House that says would give tax breaks to the rich and would reduce the national debt. As if that's mathematically possible.
"Fire cannot kill a dragon." -Daenerys Targaryen, Game of Thrones
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Dapper_Don]
#673932
11/04/12 01:14 PM
11/04/12 01:14 PM
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Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,769 Massachusetts, USA
123JoeSchmo
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,769
Massachusetts, USA
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Here's what doesn't make sense Dap. The fact that the race is pretty much tied. But Obama has a slam dunk in the electoral college race. You got your statisitics from the Huffington Post: the only other website/blog just as liberal as NBC, and please don't try to tell me they aren't. Where are they based? New York City, otherwise known as the most liberal place on the planet.
Any accurate polling (such as Rasmussen) does not have Obama leading in swing states rather it has Romney up by four percent. Because NBC and Huff think that the Democratic turnout will be the same. It will not. This race is closer than ever. Let's just hold on tight till Tuesday and look at the final results. I agree. We clearly have different viewpoints on this and they won't change. All we can do is wait.
"Don't ever go against the family again. Ever"- Michael Corleone
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