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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#673539
11/02/12 09:39 AM
11/02/12 09:39 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145 East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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Hail Mary time. Obama's firewall got stronger all week. Nate Silver has Obama's odds up to 81%, and on Intrade, Obama is up to 67%.
Again we must remember what Silver predicting is probability, or basically out of 5 coin flips, it'll land 4 times. But really Big O* has got all the momentum this week from Sandy to Cristie's hug of death (for Willard) to Bloomberg/Economist's endorsement to this positive jobs report. And worse of all, Willard is indeed acting like he's losing. I wonder how the base will spin this defeat? Will they blame Sandy? Will they blame Willard for not being genuinely conservative enough? Will they blame the media again? Will they blame Willard for conceding that third foreign policy debate? Will they blame Willard for picking Ryan as VP instead of say the Ohio-native Portman? *=You know its funny, I've never come up or found a good nickname for the President. I hate "Big O" only because I hear that, I think of Oprah instead and let's admit it, she has her own channel. She's bigger than the President. "Barry" is too...weirdly personal for me, I dunno. I've thought about "The Kenyan." How about that?
Last edited by ronnierocketAGO; 11/02/12 09:40 AM.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#673544
11/02/12 10:22 AM
11/02/12 10:22 AM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296 Throggs Neck
pizzaboy
The Fuckin Doctor
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The Fuckin Doctor
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296
Throggs Neck
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Watch as the same Democrats who kept dismissing (with some justification) Ras will now trump that new poll showing the race tied up at 48. That's because Democrats love to panic, Ronnie. You know that .
"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Just Lou]
#673550
11/02/12 10:38 AM
11/02/12 10:38 AM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296 Throggs Neck
pizzaboy
The Fuckin Doctor
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The Fuckin Doctor
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296
Throggs Neck
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I've thought about "The Kenyan." How about that? I like it. How about the Manzier? The Bro would be understandably too ethnic.
"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Dapper_Don]
#673560
11/02/12 11:06 AM
11/02/12 11:06 AM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296 Throggs Neck
pizzaboy
The Fuckin Doctor
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The Fuckin Doctor
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296
Throggs Neck
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They tended to endorse Repub candidates unless the Repub was just a mess (i.e. 2004 and 1992). I hate to correct you, Dap. Because you're my Bronx paisan and all. But the Republicans weren't that much of a mess in '92. Sure, the economy was in the shitter. But George HW Bush had just won a war of sorts, and if it wasn't for Ross Perot, he probably would have been re-elected. But you were just a tyke in '92. I was already older in '92 than you are right now .
"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#673573
11/02/12 12:26 PM
11/02/12 12:26 PM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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I was going to mention the Jobs Report today, but the last two have hada zilch poll impact. Both voting factions have settled in, a general public disconnect. 7.9% unemployment, but the number that'll be grounded into our heads this weekend will be 600K jobs added in the last 4 months. "Strong growth" from what I understand is this morning's headline, not "unemployment up."
The added jobs in August though is stunning. Originally 96,000, now upped to 192,000. Whaaat?!? Obama started with unemployment at 7.8% and it's 7.9% today.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Dapper_Don]
#673574
11/02/12 12:34 PM
11/02/12 12:34 PM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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Things are looking good for The Kenyan. I just hope the turnout is there to bring him over the hump and lock up the election. What looks good for Obama? He's fighting to keep Wisconsin after winning there by a big margin in 2008. Wisconsin not only elected a Republican governor, but won a big recall too. There's Republican momentum there. He's trailing with independents in Ohio. In 2012, more absentee ballots in Ohio were requested by Republicans. In 2008 it was Democrats asking for the ballots. In Ohio, Romney leads independents. So really, Ohio can go either way.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Skinny_Vinny]
#673579
11/02/12 01:00 PM
11/02/12 01:00 PM
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Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089 Brooklyn, New York
Dapper_Don
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089
Brooklyn, New York
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They tended to endorse Repub candidates unless the Repub was just a mess (i.e. 2004 and 1992). I hate to correct you, Dap. Because you're my Bronx paisan and all. But the Republicans weren't that much of a mess in '92. Sure, the economy was in the shitter. But George HW Bush had just won a war of sorts, and if it wasn't for Ross Perot, he probably would have been re-elected. But you were just a tyke in '92. I was already older in '92 than you are right now . As a history buff I would have to disagree, Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes, the economy was in a recession, and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East after the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War. Perot did play a role in his defeat as well. I was going to mention the Jobs Report today, but the last two have hada zilch poll impact. Both voting factions have settled in, a general public disconnect. 7.9% unemployment, but the number that'll be grounded into our heads this weekend will be 600K jobs added in the last 4 months. "Strong growth" from what I understand is this morning's headline, not "unemployment up."
The added jobs in August though is stunning. Originally 96,000, now upped to 192,000. Whaaat?!? Obama started with unemployment at 7.8% and it's 7.9% today. Look at the detailed numbers, thats cause more people are confident the economy is getting better and thus re-entered the workforce. Job growth has actually been picking up and last month was the strongest month in the past eight for new jobs. Things are looking good for The Kenyan. I just hope the turnout is there to bring him over the hump and lock up the election. What looks good for Obama? He's fighting to keep Wisconsin after winning there by a big margin in 2008. Wisconsin not only elected a Republican governor, but won a big recall too. There's Republican momentum there. He's trailing with independents in Ohio. In 2012, more absentee ballots in Ohio were requested by Republicans. In 2008 it was Democrats asking for the ballots. In Ohio, Romney leads independents. So really, Ohio can go either way. The positive reviews for FEMA and for Obama in the wake of the Hurricane plus the positive economic news that the economy is picking up the pace in terms of job creation. The addition of Paul Ryan of Wisconsin to the Republican ticket does not guarantee victory over President Obama, but it cements the state’s role as a true battleground. Democrats carried the state in the last six presidential contests – often narrowly – but Republican groups are advertising to try to push the Obama campaign to spend money. Still, Mitt Romney is at the top of the ticket and must show that he can make his own case here. Most recent Wisconsin poll (Oct 28-29) has Obama leading 49 to 46. There are few credible paths to the White House for Mitt Romney without winning Ohio, a well-established bellwether. The state has accurately picked winning presidential candidates in the last 12 elections. A steadily improving economy could help President Obama carry the state again. Large portions of the state remain conservative, but Republicans worry that Democrats may be motivated by a victory last year in which voters struck down a law restricting public workers’ rights to bargain collectively.Obama leads in Ohio 48 to 46 in recent polls. Think of it this way, if Romney was going to win Ohio he wouldnt be trying to create an alternate path to victory by trying to flip PA. Romney is getting desperate, McCain spent the last wkn of the campaign in 2008 in PA trying to do that as well.
Last edited by Dapper_Don; 11/02/12 01:02 PM.
Tommy Shots: They want me running the family, don't they know I have a young wife? Sal Vitale: (laughs) Tommy, jump in, the water's fine.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Skinny_Vinny]
#673581
11/02/12 01:01 PM
11/02/12 01:01 PM
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Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 11,797 Pennsylvania
klydon1
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Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 11,797
Pennsylvania
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I was going to mention the Jobs Report today, but the last two have hada zilch poll impact. Both voting factions have settled in, a general public disconnect. 7.9% unemployment, but the number that'll be grounded into our heads this weekend will be 600K jobs added in the last 4 months. "Strong growth" from what I understand is this morning's headline, not "unemployment up."
The added jobs in August though is stunning. Originally 96,000, now upped to 192,000. Whaaat?!? Obama started with unemployment at 7.8% and it's 7.9% today. what you need to understand is that while unemployment may have been around 7.8 when he took office, the economy was in the midst of a vicious downward spiral. It was recognized that it was still in the process of worsening. And 2009 was the year of his predecessor's budget.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: 123JoeSchmo]
#673590
11/02/12 01:33 PM
11/02/12 01:33 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296 Throggs Neck
pizzaboy
The Fuckin Doctor
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The Fuckin Doctor
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296
Throggs Neck
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Come on dap Ohio is more of a toss up than Pennsylvania. Romney has a legitimate shot at winning that state. Most polls have them at a dead heat. Let's not get carried away here. This is going to be a close election. It's gonna be close; can't argue with that. But I do agree that whoever wins Ohio will win the election.
"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: pizzaboy]
#673598
11/02/12 02:05 PM
11/02/12 02:05 PM
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Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089 Brooklyn, New York
Dapper_Don
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089
Brooklyn, New York
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Come on dap Ohio is more of a toss up than Pennsylvania. Romney has a legitimate shot at winning that state. Most polls have them at a dead heat. Let's not get carried away here. This is going to be a close election. I COMPLETELY agree, Ohio is/should be. The fact that Romney is campaigning in PA and Michigan shows that he is trying to make viable an alternate scenario for victory in case he doesn't win Ohio. Come on dap Ohio is more of a toss up than Pennsylvania. Romney has a legitimate shot at winning that state. Most polls have them at a dead heat. Let's not get carried away here. This is going to be a close election. It's gonna be close; can't argue with that. But I do agree that whoever wins Ohio will win the election. Agreed.
Tommy Shots: They want me running the family, don't they know I have a young wife? Sal Vitale: (laughs) Tommy, jump in, the water's fine.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Dapper_Don]
#673608
11/02/12 02:25 PM
11/02/12 02:25 PM
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Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 11,797 Pennsylvania
klydon1
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Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 11,797
Pennsylvania
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I COMPLETELY agree, Ohio is/should be. The fact that Romney is campaigning in PA and Michigan shows that he is trying to make viable an alternate scenario for victory in case he doesn't win Ohio.
That's it. PA and Michigan are long shots, but there seems to be a thought among the Romney campaign that they've hit Ohio as hard as they can, drained every ounce of support from the State, and they can't get to the number there that they need. They are also discouraged by polling and volume of early voters. While they certaintly can't write off Ohio, it's apparent that they can't put all of their eggs in that basket. Moreover, for Ohio to be of any consequence for Romney, he'll likely need Virginia and Florida. If he loses one of them and Obama's firewall states of PA, MI and NV, Ohio won't matter.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#673609
11/02/12 02:28 PM
11/02/12 02:28 PM
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Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 6,762 Anytown, USA
goombah
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Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 6,762
Anytown, USA
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It's going to be close in OH, but most polls not skewed from Fox or MSNBC has Obama with a slight lead in Ohio. I think Obama has more paths to 270 than Romney.
If partisanship is set aside, many economists would argue that Obama inherited the worst financial disaster this country has seen since the late 1920's and early 1930's. Some have called it the Great Depression Part II. And for those of you who know history, we didn't just flip a switch and turn the economy around back then under FDR. It took YEARS to dig out of the 1929 stock market crash, the unemployment, etc. It took World War II to get this country's economy jump started again.
Several other points. While I fully admit to hating George Bush 43's presidency, I can still be objective. Bush oversaw some of the worst economic disasters in this nation's history: the aftermath of 9/11, the billions in damage from Katrina, the billions spent on fighting two wars - one in which Bush fought voluntarily, the collapse of major financial institutions, and the collapse of the housing market. No matter how some like to spin it, those events all occurred under George Bush's watch.
I don't care if Houdini or Superman succeeded Bush 43, it was a complete disaster that Obama inherited. For anyone to think that 8 years of incompetency were going to be corrected in the next term of the succeeding president, such thinking is simply not realistic.
I'm not overly happy about either of the choices for president. This country, more than ever, needs a viable third-party. But in the meantime, I'm not going to waste my vote on an out-of-touch millionaire who has no idea what ordinary Americans confront on a daily basis.
At the end of the day, Obama followed through and fulfilled some fairly ambitious 2008 campaign promises: he pulled us out of Iraq, he had bin Laden killed, and he was the first president to pass a nationwide health care system. Was the health care reform perfect? Absolutely not. If anyone was dumb enough to think it would be perfect, then shame on you. But going back to 1972 (at the very least) candidates have been talking about universal health care. That's all they have done - talk. Obama finally got something passed and had the Republican Chief Justice affirm the law as constitutional.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: klydon1]
#673610
11/02/12 02:28 PM
11/02/12 02:28 PM
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Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089 Brooklyn, New York
Dapper_Don
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089
Brooklyn, New York
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I COMPLETELY agree, Ohio is/should be. The fact that Romney is campaigning in PA and Michigan shows that he is trying to make viable an alternate scenario for victory in case he doesn't win Ohio.
That's it. PA and Michigan are long shots, but there seems to be a thought among the Romney campaign that they've hit Ohio as hard as they can, drained every ounce of support from the State, and they can't get to the number there that they need. They are also discouraged by polling and volume of early voters. While they certaintly can't write off Ohio, it's apparent that they can't put all of their eggs in that basket. Moreover, for Ohio to be of any consequence for Romney, he'll likely need Virginia and Florida. If he loses one of them and Obama's firewall states of PA, MI and NV, Ohio won't matter. Bingo.
Tommy Shots: They want me running the family, don't they know I have a young wife? Sal Vitale: (laughs) Tommy, jump in, the water's fine.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: goombah]
#673612
11/02/12 02:31 PM
11/02/12 02:31 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296 Throggs Neck
pizzaboy
The Fuckin Doctor
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The Fuckin Doctor
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296
Throggs Neck
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It's going to be close in OH, but most polls not skewed from Fox or MSNBC has Obama with a slight lead in Ohio. I think Obama has more paths to 270 than Romney.
If partisanship is set aside, many economists would argue that Obama inherited the worst financial disaster this country has seen since the late 1920's and early 1930's. Some have called it the Great Depression Part II. And for those of you who know history, we didn't just flip a switch and turn the economy around back then under FDR. It took YEARS to dig out of the 1929 stock market crash, the unemployment, etc. It took World War II to get this country's economy jump started again.
Several other points. While I fully admit to hating George Bush 43's presidency, I can still be objective. Bush oversaw some of the worst economic disasters in this nation's history: the aftermath of 9/11, the billions in damage from Katrina, the billions spent on fighting two wars - one in which Bush fought voluntarily, the collapse of major financial institutions, and the collapse of the housing market. No matter how some like to spin it, those events all occurred under George Bush's watch.
I don't care if Houdini or Superman succeeded Bush 43, it was a complete disaster that Obama inherited. For anyone to think that 8 years of incompetency were going to be corrected in the next term of the succeeding president, such thinking is simply not realistic.
I'm not overly happy about either of the choices for president. This country, more than ever, needs a viable third-party. But in the meantime, I'm not going to waste my vote on an out-of-touch millionaire who has no idea what ordinary Americans confront on a daily basis.
At the end of the day, Obama followed through and fulfilled some fairly ambitious 2008 campaign promises: he pulled us out of Iraq, he had bin Laden killed, and he was the first president to pass a nationwide health care system. Was the health care reform perfect? Absolutely not. If anyone was dumb enough to think it would be perfect, then shame on you. But going back to 1972 (at the very least) candidates have been talking about universal health care. That's all they have done - talk. Obama finally got something passed and had the Republican Chief Justice affirm the law as constitutional. Great post.
"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: goombah]
#673613
11/02/12 02:35 PM
11/02/12 02:35 PM
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Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089 Brooklyn, New York
Dapper_Don
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,089
Brooklyn, New York
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It's going to be close in OH, but most polls not skewed from Fox or MSNBC has Obama with a slight lead in Ohio. I think Obama has more paths to 270 than Romney.
If partisanship is set aside, many economists would argue that Obama inherited the worst financial disaster this country has seen since the late 1920's and early 1930's. Some have called it the Great Depression Part II. And for those of you who know history, we didn't just flip a switch and turn the economy around back then under FDR. It took YEARS to dig out of the 1929 stock market crash, the unemployment, etc. It took World War II to get this country's economy jump started again.
Several other points. While I fully admit to hating George Bush 43's presidency, I can still be objective. Bush oversaw some of the worst economic disasters in this nation's history: the aftermath of 9/11, the billions in damage from Katrina, the billions spent on fighting two wars - one in which Bush fought voluntarily, the collapse of major financial institutions, and the collapse of the housing market. No matter how some like to spin it, those events all occurred under George Bush's watch.
I don't care if Houdini or Superman succeeded Bush 43, it was a complete disaster that Obama inherited. For anyone to think that 8 years of incompetency were going to be corrected in the next term of the succeeding president, such thinking is simply not realistic.
I'm not overly happy about either of the choices for president. This country, more than ever, needs a viable third-party. But in the meantime, I'm not going to waste my vote on an out-of-touch millionaire who has no idea what ordinary Americans confront on a daily basis.
At the end of the day, Obama followed through and fulfilled some fairly ambitious 2008 campaign promises: he pulled us out of Iraq, he had bin Laden killed, and he was the first president to pass a nationwide health care system. Was the health care reform perfect? Absolutely not. If anyone was dumb enough to think it would be perfect, then shame on you. But going back to 1972 (at the very least) candidates have been talking about universal health care. That's all they have done - talk. Obama finally got something passed and had the Republican Chief Justice affirm the law as constitutional. I concur with Pizzaboy, this is a great post. Not because this is for Obama, but because you stated the FACTS without any of the spin. At this point I cant wait till this thing is over next week!
Tommy Shots: They want me running the family, don't they know I have a young wife? Sal Vitale: (laughs) Tommy, jump in, the water's fine.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: Dapper_Don]
#673614
11/02/12 02:48 PM
11/02/12 02:48 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296 Throggs Neck
pizzaboy
The Fuckin Doctor
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The Fuckin Doctor
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 23,296
Throggs Neck
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I concur with Pizzaboy, this is a great post. Not because this is for Obama, but because you stated the FACTS without any of the spin. Exactly, Dapper. No matter what side you're on, you can't argue with facts and reasoning. And Goombah did a great job here .
"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: ronnierocketAGO]
#673617
11/02/12 02:54 PM
11/02/12 02:54 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145 East Tennessee
ronnierocketAGO
OP
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OP
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
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Looking at that conservative-leaning Ras poll, Obama's approval is at 50%. (Disapproval 49%.) Anyway, Bubba! An incredulous Clinton admonished the Romney campaign for what he called total dishonesty, with one exception: Its edict that it would not be boxed in by fact-checkers. “You got to give it to them; they told the truth then,” he joked to the receptive audience. “I’m still partial to facts, so I thought we would take a little run through the newspaper today.” Clinton brandished several papers and read through their headlines: One trumpeted GM’s $1.4 billion profit, which topped expectations; another lauded Chrysler sales reaching a five-year high. Naturally, there was the photo of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and the president working together in the aftermath of Sandy, and Clinton noted a survey suggesting that voters favor competence over ideology. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article...es__116028.html
Last edited by ronnierocketAGO; 11/02/12 03:01 PM.
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Re: Election 2012
[Re: goombah]
#673631
11/02/12 05:03 PM
11/02/12 05:03 PM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422 Tampa and Queens
Skinny_Vinny
Capo
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Capo
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 422
Tampa and Queens
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It's going to be close in OH, but most polls not skewed from Fox or MSNBC has Obama with a slight lead in Ohio. I think Obama has more paths to 270 than Romney.
If partisanship is set aside, many economists would argue that Obama inherited the worst financial disaster this country has seen since the late 1920's and early 1930's. Some have called it the Great Depression Part II. And for those of you who know history, we didn't just flip a switch and turn the economy around back then under FDR. It took YEARS to dig out of the 1929 stock market crash, the unemployment, etc. It took World War II to get this country's economy jump started again.
Several other points. While I fully admit to hating George Bush 43's presidency, I can still be objective. Bush oversaw some of the worst economic disasters in this nation's history: the aftermath of 9/11, the billions in damage from Katrina, the billions spent on fighting two wars - one in which Bush fought voluntarily, the collapse of major financial institutions, and the collapse of the housing market. No matter how some like to spin it, those events all occurred under George Bush's watch.
I don't care if Houdini or Superman succeeded Bush 43, it was a complete disaster that Obama inherited. For anyone to think that 8 years of incompetency were going to be corrected in the next term of the succeeding president, such thinking is simply not realistic.
I'm not overly happy about either of the choices for president. This country, more than ever, needs a viable third-party. But in the meantime, I'm not going to waste my vote on an out-of-touch millionaire who has no idea what ordinary Americans confront on a daily basis.
At the end of the day, Obama followed through and fulfilled some fairly ambitious 2008 campaign promises: he pulled us out of Iraq, he had bin Laden killed, and he was the first president to pass a nationwide health care system. Was the health care reform perfect? Absolutely not. If anyone was dumb enough to think it would be perfect, then shame on you. But going back to 1972 (at the very least) candidates have been talking about universal health care. That's all they have done - talk. Obama finally got something passed and had the Republican Chief Justice affirm the law as constitutional. Problem is, Obama promised to not only lower unemployment to about 5.2% by the end of his first term, he said he'd reduce our debt by 50%. I never believe he would or could do either, but he did say it. And if he wins, I have no reason to believe unemployment will drop significantly or that he'll try to cut spending.
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