No.

I only say that for two reasons. (1), there's so many upcoming movies that will also be serious contenders from Paul Thomas Anderson's eagerly anticipated THE MASTER to Spielberg's LINCOLN movie, it's too soon to speculate in July.

But most importantly, (2)Christopher Nolan's last two movies were insanely successful blockbusters. THE DARK KNIGHT made a billion, and INCEPTION actually did better overseas than TDK. Both blockbusters were pretty darn popular with critics and shit even both scored prestigious nominations for Nolan from the Director's Guild of America. The DGA self-explainatory the Hollywood union of directors and they vote those DGA awards, so shit even Nolan's peers thought he did pretty well both years.

And both times, he was snubbed by the Oscars for even a director nomination. With three DGA nods and ZERO Oscar directing nods, he shares that disgraceful honor with Meathead himself, Rob Reiner. (Nolan was previously DGA nominated for MEMENTO.) Without a Director nod, you can't be a serious contender to win Best Picture.

Nolan's predictament reminds me of the Oscars ignoring Spielberg for years. They even at one point gave him the Thalberg Award at a very young age (41) to win such a lifetime honorary prize just so they could get over the public's confusion for why the #1 successful filmmaker in history was snubbed by the Oscars. (His THE COLOR PURPLE infamously scored 10 nominations but won Zero.)

The Oscars in their self-absorbed world would rather not nominate, much less let win, massively popular "popcorn" movies unless their hand is absolutely forced by their voting body. Since the Best Picture nomination field expanded in recent years, its why several Pixar releases (rightfully) got nominated but zero director nods because they're animation which aren't "real" movies.

Now obviously because you are a popular blockbuster, it doesn't mean you can't win the Oscar. TITANIC (biggest hit at the time) and GLADIATOR and the last LORD OF THE RINGS movie are good exceptions. (Going back even further, SILENCE OF THE LAMBS and FOREST GUMP.)

But that's the thing with the Oscars, that never-ending battle between voting for the popular entertainments and the wonderful if underseen/little-seen limited released/indie productions.

I mean I don't know about you guys, but I thought NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN was an oustanding movie in every regard and absolutely deserved that Oscar. I thought THE HURT LOCKER was pretty damn good too, exceptional action filmmaking in our era of the despised "post-action" shakey cam nonsense. (Plus it deserved the win more than fucking AVATAR.)

Then in '08, THE DARK KNIGHT wasn't nominated. It should've been, not just because it deserved it IMO but because it was better than every single movie nominated for BP that year.

In short, I wouldn't be shocked if THE DARK KNIGHT RISES is better than the last two Best Picture winners*. And it still won't win, a nomination perhaps because of the 5+ nom field. I mean even INCEPTION got a Picture nod.

*=It won't take much to be better than THE ARTIST, a movie I thought was charmingly decent at the time but it's not aged well in reflection.