Personally I was hoping McCarthy would win. (Funny women are scarce at the Oscars.)
the artist or the help should win
Off-topic, but as somebody who actually saw THE ARTIST, it was pretty good. Surprisingly for a movie that got a backlash because it's black & white and silent, it's actually mainstream accessible and yet folks won't give it a chance.
If it wins, it'll be the lowest grossing winner ever. (Don't hold that against it.)