I agree to you're arguments. I don't know that much about Detroit, but I assume that Scott B. (who I believe can be called a Detroit mob expert) knows his stuff.
40-50 members is about as much as Philly, and there's a lot of news about Philly in recent years up until now. Unless the Detroit mob has mastered their efforts to keep under the radar, I think it's unlikely they have over 40 members, probably less.
But you know at least as well as I do that the FBI isn't always accurate and clear about its estimations too. A good example is the Outfit. Over the years they have given various estimations about the Outfit's size ranging from 50 to 25.
It's not that Scott doesn't know his stuff when it comes to Detroit. It's that he, in my opinion, succumbs so the same thing other authors do when they tend to "hype" their subjects. It's why Lamothe and Humphreys called the Rizzutos the "Sixth Family." It's why Volkman referred to the Lucchese family in his book Gangbusters as the "crown jewel" of the Mafia, even though they never were.
And the Detroit family somehow figuring out a way to avoid law enforcement is another convenient excuse that some have used. As if Tocco and Company are smarter and sneakier than the other families. Of course, going along that same line of thinking, one could argue that the same applies to Kansas City, or Pittsburgh, or Los Angeles. Heck, the Dallas mob must really be a slippery bunch. No news from them since the 1960's.
My point being that more activity usually means more indictments. Less activity means less indictments. Two significant cases in Detroit over the last 15 years should tell people all the need to know. But there will always be a certain group who
want to believe there is still a strong family in Detroit or wherever. So they go on wishful thinking more than demonstrable facts.
