I agree to you're arguments. I don't know that much about Detroit, but I assume that Scott B. (who I believe can be called a Detroit mob expert) knows his stuff.

40-50 members is about as much as Philly, and there's a lot of news about Philly in recent years up until now. Unless the Detroit mob has mastered their efforts to keep under the radar, I think it's unlikely they have over 40 members, probably less.

But you know at least as well as I do that the FBI isn't always accurate and clear about its estimations too. A good example is the Outfit. Over the years they have given various estimations about the Outfit's size ranging from 50 to 25.