,Looking at his recent success, you wouldn't have guessed that his party got kicked between the legs in the midterms. But for whatever reason, the departing Democrats with a fire lit under their asses gave us the most productive lame duck Congress session since WW2 with hits like:

*The Tax bill compromise with the Republicans which pissed off our own Lilo, and I did agree with him on the particulars, but I'll quote what someone said the best of that deal: "Bad policy, Good politics." The party base was furious at Obama, but now polling indicates he's more popular with the party base now than Clinton was at this point of his Presidency. And Bubba fumes again.

*Repealing that stupid DADT, which turned out harder to exterminate than you would expect despite over 75% of polled Americans supporting repeal.

*Passing the START Treaty which aside from the direct positives on paper, is vitally essential behind the scenes to keep Russian support on tougher sanctions against Iran. If START had died in the Senate, the sanctions would have unraveled and that tight economic squeeze on Tehran would have been relaxed. That really was why GOPers like Lugar pressed for passage, as did recruited old GOPers like Kissinger and Fmr. President George Bush Sr. to go public in their support.

*Completing a new free trade agreement w/ South Korea that eliminates Korean tariffs on American agricultural products and certain exemptions on American-produced automobile imports from their very strict safety standards. It could (potentially) double U.S. exports into Korea in the next few years.

*Passing the Food Safety Act which among many things, now force manufactures to issue a recall if the FDA deems a failure in food safety standards. Believe it or not, such previous public recalls were done voluntarily. Think about that shit for a moment.

*Passing the Local Community Radio Act and Shark Conservation Act. The first loosens up FCC regulations and allow more low-power FM radio stations, specifically in urban areas. The second bans "shark finning" on all American coastal waters, that practice where fishermen would capture sharks, cut off the precious fins (shark fin soup is popular in Asia) and then throw the fin-less bodies back into the sea where they would drown.

Some essential bills, others maybe trivial except to special interest groups that lobbied hard for them, but none the less Americans like it when Presidents get shit done. And shit got done, even if Obama doesn't deserve credit for repealing DADT. That honor goes to the Senators Joe Lieberman and GOPer Susan Collins.

Combine all this with his deservedly well-praised speech at Tucson (especially in contrast with Palin's own "blood libel" speech that same day) and House Republicans really wasting their time on Health Care Reform Repeal*, Charles Krauthammer was right: Obama is the new Comeback Kid.



Maybe/maybe not. Just ask George Bush Sr. who at this point of his Presidency seemed a lock, scoring 90% approval rating after Desert Storm. In fact he was seen as such a lock, many prominent Democrats considered '92 hopless and didn't run for President. Then here comes Bubba...

Certain factors will determine '12:

(1) The economy
(2) Foreign affairs
(3) GOP Nominee

The economic "recovery" has mixed signs so far, but maybe things are doing better when the barely-sworn in GOP House is already taking credit for the dip in unemployment. Presidents, deserving or not, get the credit (and blame) for the economy.

Actually, I think Obama is stronger in foreign affairs than on economics, a switch of what one traditionally expects from a Democratic President facing re-election. His double-down troop surge in Afghanistan has produced an underreported, quiet rise in non-support by Americans for that war, yet the Republicans still support it (and Tea Party is even more enthusiastic). Unless the war goes from quagmire to disaster, what will the GOP run on that issue? More troops? An invasion of Pakistan? Call Rambo?

Which leads to #3....



I'm starting a new thread topic in the next few days on '12, so I won't go into details except I'll say two quick things about the potential GOP presidential field: Pretty weak. All the cited candidates have major problems (not just Sarah) and even the one potential dark horse (a guy from Indiana) could be less Bill Clinton '92 and more Gary Hart '84.

And second, The primaries will be a train wreck.

*=And before people jump on me: It'll pass the House by party lines, die in the Senate by party lines, then HCR will get parsed apart by the House GOP committees which potentially could produce a backlash. Even if most polled Americans still oppose HCR as a whole, many individual provisions are wildly popular. If GOP puts a knife to them, people will get pissed.