An exchange with Olivant in another thread caused me to re-think the key scene between Tom and Sonny after Vito was shot. After Sonny asked Tom what to do if Vito died, he replied:

"If we lose the old man, we lose our political contacts and half our strength. The other New York Families might wind up supporting Sollozzo just to avoid a long -- destructive war. This is almost 1946….nobody wants bloodshed anymore. If your father dies, you make the deal, Sonny."

Unless this is an example of bad writing (always a possibility with Puzo), I assume Tom meant that “we lose all our political contacts” and the loss of those contacts would constitute the loss of half of the family’s strength. Sollozzo wanted Vito’s political contacts. If Vito died, what deal could Sonny make with Sol? What could Sol want, and what could Sonny offer, if the Corleones lost their political contacts? Even Michael, who’d had no involvement in the family business previously, saw that Sol was just trying to buy time for another shot at Vito.

What’s more, in giving Sonny that advice, Tom was playing to Sonny’s weakness (diplomacy and negotiation), not his strength (wartime generalship). Had Sonny not avenged his father and accepted some “deal” from Sol in compensation for killing his father, he would have lost tremendous face with Tessio and Clemenza, with the Corleone rank and file, and with the other families. The other families might support Sol to avoid a long, destructive war? The other half of the Corleones’ power was in muscle—deterrent if you prefer. The only way to make that power credible was to threaten war unless Sol was turned over, as Sonny threatened. Settling with Sol to avoid a war would have neutralized what remained of the Corleones' strength.

This is another example of why Tom wasn’t a wartime consigliere. Vito sent him to law school probably with an eye toward the day when the Corleones would be “legitimate” and, as some here believe, as a brake on Sonny’s impetuousness. But lawyers are trained to compromise and negotiate. They only get into the equivalent of war when negotiation fails, and cases go to trial. In-house lawyers seldom try cases--they hire outside firms that specialize in litigation. I'll bet Tom never tried a case because Vito would want him to keep a low profile--the better to help with delicate political, behind-the-scenes negotiation.

That characteristic has a bearing on Olivant’s oft-repeated question: If Sol needed Vito’s political contacts, and killing Vito would make his political contacts disappear, why kill Vito? I believe that Sol figured that since Vito wouldn’t rent him his political contacts, why not cut them loose by killing Vito? At least some of them still would have mortgages to pay, and kids to put through college. They could be picked up by his patrons, Barzini and Tattaglia. Killing Vito would gravely weaken the former Numero Uno family, and by extension strengthen his patrons. Most important: Sol (as he told Michael) was a man who “respects himself.” While he might have been able to do some business without the politicians, he could not accept Vito’s no and keep his self-respect, and his credibility with the other Dons—he’d be just another small-time crook. By killing Vito, he’d have risked something the other Dons wouldn’t have tried on their own. He would have gained tremendous respect, and have made himself a pezzanovante, a force to be reckoned with in the NYC Mafia world.

That’s what Tom didn’t understand when he advised Sonny to “make the deal.”