Bottom line is a no brainer. ITS THE ECONOMY, STUPID!
Exactly. The question remains to be seen if this is a "normal" downturn and by 2011-2012 the economy will have picked up again or if this is a structural shift and 7-8% unemployment is the new full unemployment number.
I think there are definitely elements of a structural shift here. But once consumer demand picks up, marginal costs and revenues will be recalculated and we'll go back to a much lower full employment figure.
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