Reagan had very low poll numbers in the early eighties and the recession was at its nadir. But by 83 and 84 things had started to pick up somewhat and Reagan beat Mondale pretty handily in just about every state if I recall correctly. I was too young to vote then...

I think the nature of the recession is different now, thanks to outsourcing and offshoring and perhaps 4-5% unemployment will not be the new full unemployment number. Maybe 6-7% will be the new normal.

The President's issue that I see is that he is conflict averse to a fault and spent the first year chasing a bipartisanship that doesn't really exist. I don't get the feeling that he's fully comfortable staking out a position and fighting for it come hell or high water. That said this is still very early in the year and his term so who knows what the political economy will look like in November or beyond. In his defense somewhat, the fact that the Democratic Party does have a large majority means that they have to deal with a lot more conservative Democrats than the Republicans had to deal with "Rockefeller Republicans". Although I would have handled the Blanche Lincolns, Baucuses and Liebermans of the world somewhat differently than PBO, the fact is that these people exist and have to be negotiated with.

In addition to taking a position and ramming it home on some issues, I also hope that the President will learn that simple is better. I don't mean to say he should condescend or talk down to people but that folks respond politically to clear, concise messages. He hasn't done that very well in his first year. But I am guardedly optimistic that that will change.