Michael presumably knew Cuba was a lost cause because he witnessed the suicide of a rebel being taken into custody, which told him “that the rebels can win.” So, we assume, he had Fredo bring the $2 million to Havana solely as bait to keep stringing Roth along to the last minute so he could find out who the traitor was in his family. And he had the plane standing by to take him, and his money, out of Cuba once Roth was disposed of.

Or did he? Just as Roth was obsessed with getting the $2 million, Michael was obsessed about becoming “legitimate”—and Roth’s Havana gaming empire was the crown jewel in that plan. I just can’t believe that Michael was ready to give up on Havana that easily. And, while it was pretty obvious that Batista was wobbling, I doubt that Michael knew when Batista would abdicate.

What about an alternate scenario for the $2 million?

Roth, stringing Michael along in his own game, had introduced Michael to Batista (and to his birthday party guests) as his heir-apparent. So, Fredo bringing the $2 million was not just bait for Roth, but also a signal to Batista that Michael was ready to pay to play. He had the plane standing by to escape being nabbed for Roth’s murder. There’d be brouhaha after Roth’s body was discovered. But there were still casinos to be run and payoffs to be made. If Batista hung on for a while, Michael would return to Havana, pay off Batista, and assume Roth’s mantle. Sure, the rebels would oust Batista sooner rather than later. But Michael would assume that tourism would continue to be all-powerful as Cuba’s second-biggest industry (after sugar cane), that gambling and whoring would still be the main tourist attractions, and that the rebels would be just as venal as Batista. He’d simply channel the monthly payoffs to them when Batista was gone.

So, Michael was lucky that Batista abdicated when he did. Castro took over and his first act was to close the casinos and the brothels. Michael didn’t get his crown jewel, but neither did anyone else. And he saved $2 million.

TB, I think it's simpler than that. Michael was just keeping his options open. I don't think there's anything particularly discerning about Michael's decision to wait or to have the money available. His arrangements to leave Cuba were probably made before he went to Cuba.

I like your thinking here TB, and would tend to agree with you, but something bothers me with that scenerio.

Michael couldn't have planned for Roth to be murdered specifically on that night. Up until that night he wasn't sure who the traitor was. It was only when Fredo let the cat out of the bag in the nightclub that Michael turns to his bodyguard and give him the silent ok to go and kill Roth and Ola. Obviously they did talk about if and when the order would be carried out beforehand, but they couldn't have planned for it to be on that night specifically. I believe that Michael wanted to know who the traitor was BEFORE the murder of Roth and Ola was to take place. It could have taken much longer than that for the traitor to be found.

No. I think that both Roth and Michael played it close to the vest. Not only did they play chicken with each other, but they played chicken with time itself. Both knew that there was a good chance that the rebels would overtake Cuba sooner than later. Michael bringing the $2 million to the Island but never intending to give it to Roth because a) he knew that the rebels would probably take over and b) he knew that eventualy he would have to have Roth killed.

And Roth knew that the rebels would probably take over the Island so he was trying to get the $2 million from Michael BEFORE that happened.

Remember, both Roth and Michael had transportation standing by so that they could leave the island on a moments notice. That tells me that both knew that it was only a matter of time before the rebels overthrew the government. SO both played the chicken game with each other, the timing of the takeover and the $2 million.

What I am trying to say is that I just don't think that Michael arranged for that plane to be standing by solely for the purpose of getting off that island once he ordered the murder of Roth. He pre-arranged for that plane to stand by in the event that he had to escape that island with his $2 million. Had it ready to get him out of there as soon those rebels overthrew the government.

Very nice analysis, DC. Yes, both of them played time to the last possible second: Roth to get the $2M, Michael to find out who the traitor was. BUT: Even before Fredo slipped up, Michael knew exactly when he would have Roth killed. "Hyman Roth will never see the New Year," he told Fredo when they were having drinks. He knew when because he'd found out, before meeting with Fredo, that Roth would have him driven back to his hotel from the Presidential Palace after the New Year's Eve party. So, I'm assuming that, as soon as he found that out, he arranged for the plane to stand by.

Mike was using that briefcase as a prop, i think Fredo was in it with Roth the entire time, but i also think that Fredo had told Roth that the briefcase was for the president while in Cuba as
Mike told Freddy to keep him "in the dark" so that way Roth knew that Mike was not gonna give anyone the case as he said earlier the rebels are gonna win.
Yes what i am saying was that Roth was pretending that he was falling for the whole Mike giving Roth briefcase scenario, and also Roth throwing a tantrum about the case was him being clever as in trying to act like he was falling for Mike's lie.

So thats my thought.

DC when you say Michael didn't know who the traitor was, you refer to Fredo. Heknew before he went to Cuba that Roth engineered the attempted Tahoe hit, and through his spies he learned that Roth planned to assassinate Michael after the New Year's Eve party. What I wonder about is whether Fredo got word to Roth after his time with Michael that a) Michael knew of the assassination plans and that according to Michael b)Hyman Roth would never see the new year. If so that istmight
explain why Roth moved himself into a hospital and why a contingent of Batista's army was going there to protect him and happened to get there just in time.

DT, there's no evidence that Roth moved himself into the hospital. He had a heart attack. I think that's pretty plain from some of the previous scenes. The soldiers arrived to guard him while arrangements were made to move him out of the country before Castro arrived.

Roth had been having that same heart attack for 20 years. He got a doctor...HIS doctor from Miami say he had a heart attack and needed to go to a hospital. I bet he recovered pretty wuickly when he found out Castro took over.

I don't know whether Roth had a heart attack that night, but I agree with Olivant that he did not arrange his move to the hospital for security purposes.

Had that been the reason, he would have been transferred by the soldiers, rather than waiting undefended for them to arrive.

If Michael's bodyguard had anything more lethal than a pillow, Roth would have been dead.

Good point. Why didn't he?

Touche TB! I totally forgot about that line! That line alone actually validates your alternate scenerio!

In all this, who could have possibly been the rat in Roth's camp, who was privy to Roth's plan, and why would they tell Michael?

Not necessarily a rat, Olivant. Michael knew Roth was behind the Tahoe shooting; Roth didn't know (or wasn't sure) that Michael was. Michael knew that the real reason he was summoned to Havana was to be killed by Roth's allies, not to be anointed his heir-apparent. So when someone (Roth, a factotem from Batista) told Michael that he'd be driven back to his hotel after the party "for his safety," he knew that was the assassination setup.

Yes. Roth had been sick, and attended by a doctor, earlier when Michael visited him and Roth gave his famous "this is the business we've chosen" scenario. Plus, if he'd moved himself into the hospital, that military guard would have been with him, like white on rice, from the moment he went through the front door. That's why I believe that when Fredo said, "I'm gonna get me a real drink," he went off to a phone somewhere to call contacts in the Cuban government--which resulted in the military double-timing down the hospital corridor to rescue Roth.

I disagree TB. Batista would have already dispatched an escort to the hospital.

Well, this is a confusing point:

There were two rather sinister-looking civilians in Roth's hotel room when he was being removed to the hospital. I assumed they were Batista's men. It'd be logical for them to be looking out for Roth. But, as we saw, his hospital room was unguarded except for a nurse, who left him unattended to get a glass of bubbly. That desertion allowed the bodyguard in to do his nefarious work. Then Fredo cut out of the party to "get me a real drink," followed by that military detachment double-timing down the corridor...and then the shooting.

I thought it was directoral license to set up one of the more dramatic scenes in GFII--and perhaps to raise the possibility that Fredo was still helping Roth. Logically, if Batista was looking after Roth all along, Roth's room would have been guarded 24x7.

If it was directorial license it was a reference to the very similar hospital scene in The Godfather when Michael came to find his father unguarded and set up for assassination. In both cases Vito and Hymuards an were very lucky they did not end up dead in their hospital beds.

Question: Would Batista's guards, knowing that Castro was about to take over have had the loyalty to get Roth out of the hospital and on to the boat that supposedly brought him back? I don't see any other way he could have escaped....and btw the fact he was well enough to get out of bed and board a boat to Miami amidst all that chaos supports my theory that he arranged the move to the hospital under the guise of a heart attack, and in fact the Battista got there later than ordered.

Members of Batista's regime knew that they would probably be executed or imkprosoned by Castro. Many of them probably saw their only way out as being gratis from Batista who was a multi-millionaire.

DT, how can we possibly speculate (let alone know) that Roth was well enough to get out of bed.

And TB, Batista didn't see a threat to Roth. The progress of Castro's forces was so fast that it took Batista by surprise (don't forget that Batista had to take refuge in the Dominican Republic and a military junta took over. The film doesn't illustrate that and the timetable is a few days off). In addition, there would not have been any indication that Roth was threatened by Michael. Afterall, Michael only had his brother and a bodyguard in Cuba.

Batista made his announcement about leaving the country after we saw the guards double-timing to rescue Roth. And he made the announcement in the Presidental Palace, not in the hospital. So, while they could have figured out that Castro would win sooner rather than later, they probably didn't know that Batista had abdicated. If they did, they probably would have tried to save themselves first.
Michael did have only his bodyguard and Fredo with him--a nice touch to try to make Roth, the top gringo in Havana, feel invincible. Michael knew that Roth would have him whacked after the party--and Roth didn't know that he knew--at least not initially. But I think that by the time of their last meeting, each knew the other was planning to kill him. And they were still hanging on to their objectives--Michael to find out who was the traitor, Roth for the $2 million. I'm not excluding the possibility that Fredo may have told Roth about Michael's plan after Michael told him, "Hyman Roth will never see the New Year."
BTW: Batista did leave Cuba early in the morning of 1/1/1959. He'd made his plan several days earlier, when the US State Department offered to set him up in Florida (Batista had dual US/Cuban citizenship). Instead, he asked for diplomatic help to go to the Dominican Republic, where he felt safer.

I have a particular question about the $2 Million.

While Fredo and Michael were at the New Year's Eve Party, Michael's bodyguard Bussetta was whacking Johnny Ola, and then trying for Roth.

So at that very time, where was the 2 Million and who was watching it??

I'm thinking the 2 Million was being kept at the Capri, which the Corleone's had some control over, in a safe there.

Any thoughts about this. I'm assuming that Fredo didn't leave Cuba with the 2 Million..

Since Michael knew he had to leave Cuba by plane that night, I think it's unlikely he left the money at the Capri--he wouldn't be returning there after the Presidential party. My guess is he had his driver (the guy with the green-and-cream '57 Mercury Montclair) take his bags, including the satchel with the $2 million, to the plane after he dropped Michael off at the palace for the party.

That would be my guess too TB.