These polls are all over the place. I don't trust any of them.
My sense is Obama has peaked and needs to hang on to pull it off.

"Io sono stanco, sono imbigliato, and I wan't everyone here to know, there ain't gonna be no trouble from me..Don Corleone..Cicc' a port!"

"I stood in the courtroom like a fool."

"I am Constanza: Lord of the idiots."