Originally Posted By: Just Lou
Originally Posted By: Saladbar


This AP poll is based on a likely voter model vs registered voter model. This only proves that when you adjust your models to assume that none of the newly registered Obama Voters will actually vote, sure enough, Obama's lead disappears..duh.

But, meh, I don't mind the error in this basic statistical concept is all spin, maybe it will offset complacency.


FWIW, today Gallup has Obama up +8 among likely voters, and +9 with all registered voters.


That is the Gallup Poll Expanded. The "traditional" (using past voting records in the statistic) Gallup Poll has Likely Voter +5. It all depends on the model the poll used, and they all use different methods.

And hell if I know which one is right. I just know that the AP poll indicates that Obama might squeak by McCain if the election were held today and only if people who voted in 2004 vote.

"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it"