It looks like it. His +6 Convention/Palin bounce is down to +2 in both the Rasmussen and Gallup Polls today. Time will tell if Obama get his lead back. Obama still have a fairly significant Electoral Vote lead when "leaners" are factored in.
I stand corrected. Obama's Electoral lead has shrunk:
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** The map 50 days out: The Palin bounce has erased Obama's lead in the national polls, and it has now cut into his electoral-vote advantage, according to NBC’s latest map. Obama holds a 233-227 edge here, down from his 228-200 advantage from last week. The biggest changes: We moved Florida -- with its 27 electoral votes -- from Toss-up to Lean McCain, and New Mexico from Toss-up to Lean Obama. We also shifted Oregon and Washington from Likely Obama to Lean Obama, as well as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota from Lean McCain to Likely McCain. The good news for McCain is that the map looks better for him than at any point so far in this race, and many of those red states that looked like opportunities for Obama (AK, GA, IN) look to be longer shots for him. The bad news for McCain is that given the wave his campaign has been riding from the Palin bounce, is this as good as it gets? If he isn’t leading in some states now, he might not ever lead in them. Bottom line: You'll know the map is starting to move in one direction or the other if either Pennsylvania or Florida moves back into Toss-up before Election Day. I never figured Florida for Obama. North and South Dakota, most of the south I always figured for McCain.
Unless the economy makes an unexpected turn, it is going to continue to reflect bad numbers. Until people start borrowing and lenders start lending again, it will get worse. That will be reflected on the Electoral College map.
Also, it's about time to let go of the national polls. National figures will only be indicative if the separation between candidates is quite large.
