I think her choice as running mate was a purely cosmetic one (that apparently went over well). Once she starts speaking on her own she'll start bringing down the "approval ratings" and the advantage of a surprise pick will disappear.
I suspect you are correct about her giving the campaign a big bounce. I'm tracking a daily electoral vote map, and for the first time today McCain has 270. Obama has been as high as 300+. So Obama's definitely slippin.
You may want to rethink calling the choice "cosmetic," what with all this lipstick stuff going around.
