We infer from GFII that Roth had successfully conned Michael with his father/son act right until bullets started flying in Michael’s bedroom. Then, and only then, did Michael realize that Roth had been his enemy all along.

But: What if Michael knew all along that Roth was his enemy—and that Michael would have to kill him to get his Havana gaming empire? Suppose it was Michael who was conning Roth with his own son/father act?

The two supremely clever adversaries had been circling each other for years. The first business deal we saw Michael involved in after his return from Sicily was to attempt to move Moe Green, Roth’s best friend, out of his Vegas hotel—and to kill Moe when he refused. By 1958, Michael had moved his entire operation to Nevada, owned or controlled three hotels, was about to move Meyer Klingman out of another hotel that Roth partly owned, and had grand designs on Roth’s Havana holdings. So Roth had good reason to believe that there was no room for both of them in the legalized gaming business. He could not out-muscle Michael, so he was craftily buying time, waiting for an opportunity to strike.

For his part, Michael had every reason to believe that Roth was holding out on him. He had to know that Roth wouldn’t take the murder of his best friend lying down. He also had to know that Roth would want to prolong what Michael regarded as his inevitable capitulation for as long as possible. So, Michael’s meeting with Johnny Ola at Anthony’s party clearly was one of many such meetings—and hinted at protracted negotiations. And Fredo, in his boathouse confession, said that Ola told him “you were bein' tough on the negotiations. But if they could get a little help -- and close the deal fast -- it'd be good for the family.”

A question presents itself: Since Roth had no organization per se, why didn’t Michael simply whack Roth, as he had Moe Green when Moe refused to sell?

The answer is that Michael needed the blessing of Roth’s partner, Batista, the President of Cuba, before he could take over Havana gaming. What Michael was maneuvering for all along, and what Roth was holding out on, was an invitation to Havana to meet with Batista. Once Michael got in Batista’s good graces, he’d be free to whack Roth after a decent interval. Batista might resent the murder of his “old friend and associate from Flo-REED-ah,” but, as Roth might say, the murder would have “nothing to do with business.” There were still payoffs to be made from the gaming industry, and Michael would be making the payoffs to Batista. That’s what Michael was pressing for, and why Roth was stalling.

A major subtheme in the Trilogy is how adversaries underestimate each other—or as Vito put it, “…men cannot afford to be careless.” Michael may have known that Roth was his adversary, not his surrogate father, but he never thought Roth would recruit a traitor in his family and attempt to have him whacked in his own bedroom. But Roth, as the most powerful gringo in Havana, never, thought Michael would attempt to whack him in his own fiefdom using nothing more than a single bodyguard. And Roth never envisioned that the rebels would force his friend and protector Batista to flee Cuba. Then again, Michael never expected that Pentangeli had survived and was in the clutches of the Senate lawyer Questadt, nor did he figure out that Questadt belonged to Roth….