McCain has a crucial advantage: he's already got the GOP nomination. Now he's focusing on messages of "unity" and "bipartisanship," reaching out beyond the GOP while the Dems are still bashing each other. Clinton or Obama could end up in the general election with only their current supporters on their side, while McCain captures the undecideds.
True to some extent. But don't you think that all of the bashing keeps the Dems stimulated and on the front page?
Plus the more "bipartisan" and "centrist" he appears, the more he will cause the nut cases to stay home. He is moderate on abortion (pays lip service to being against it, but no one believes him) does not believe in torture, believes in global warming, believes in free trade (which hurts among "Reagan Democrats") and is willing to reach across the aisle to get things done. These are IMHO good qualities, but for the far religious right they are not, and I see them not raising money and staying home.
The danger that the Dems face is the same one that caused the Goldwater debacle in 1964, and an exact repeat by McGovern on the other side of the aisle in '72. In both cases, they captured their respective primaries and conventions on the shoulders of fervent, partisan supporters who were influential and well organized--but constituted only a minority of the electorate. And, in the general election, both Goldwater and McGovern spent most of their time "preaching to the choir"--those already committed to them. They didn't reach out to the midde of their own parties, to the uncommitted, and to those in the other parties.
The fact that the GOP right wing is lukewarm on McCain could be a big asset in the general election: most GOP voters (and most Dems, too) aren't religious fundamentalists, anti-abortion, pro-war, etc. I hope that once Clinton or Obama nail the nomination, they'll reach out to those constituencies, too. But for now, while they're of necessity being heavily partisan, McCain is making hay while the sun shines.
Obama is the current fund-raising champ. But what if, once he wins the nomination, his givers decide that it's all over, or that they gave enough? He'll need money from people who haven't given to him yet--people McCain may already have locked up.
