Obama fully expects to lose Pennsylvania, he has from the get go.

If he can swing just 40% of the vote, because delegates are all relative, she won't "net gain" more than a handful of votes on the night.

Then it heads to Indiana, then back towards the south (North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky), where he's fully expected to win.

If it goes to the convention, he'll probably have a lead of at least 150-175 delegates. Although it's not the magic total of 2025, it's still a substantial enough lead for the Democratic Party to do the right thing and give him the nomination.