Child or no child, things would have happened just as they did, irregardless. Only thing is that now you'd have a dead child and a dead Elvira.

What happened happened because of Manny Ray. The bank wanted to charge exorberant fees to keep Tony's money, so Manny Ray suggested using a "connected" guy to launder the money. The "connected" guy turned out to be the feds, and Tony got arrested.

Now, Sosa proposed a way to keep Tony out of jail, and that was for him to escort Omar in New York to kill some journalist who was going to make an appearance on television, exposing Sosa and his "associates." Tony takes matters into his own hands and kills Omar when he sees the journalist's children and wife enter the car that Omar was supposed to blow up, and this is the basis of the demise.

Manny would have died anyway, but Gina may have survived because she wouldn't have been at the mansion. Manny would have been at the mansion because Tony wanted him there. Either way, both Manny and Tony would have "bought the farm" that fateful evening.