All those questions and speculations are interesting. However, to me the most interesting statement was Tom's that he guessed Fredo got out of Cuba and he must be in NY. Either he knew he did or he knew that he didn't and where he was. There was no reason for Tom to guess.
"Generosity. That was my first mistake." "Experience must be our only guide; reason may mislead us." "Instagram is Twitter for people who can't read."