No I respectfully disagree....it is a plot device called "foreshadowing." At the wedding we see several things about Paulie. 1)He is a clown, not paying attention to his business, who has a friend delivering sandwiches to him at a wedding that has tons of food. 2) He is jealous and greedy looking at Connie's purse and wishing it was someone else's wedding so he could steal it. and 3) The rebuke by Clemenza. Paulie is out of line compolimenting him on his dancing. He is not Clemenza's equal, and Clemenza is there as an invited guest, supposed to have fun, while Paulie is there being a body guard. Clemenza is anything but jolly when he sarcastically tells him he is not a dance judge and that he needs to do his job.

This is followed by Clemenza letting Sonny know after the Don was shot that he had his doubts about Paulie, but that Fredo overruled him.

So we know that Fredo did have some say in who should be a body guartd for Vito --- and even at that Fredo was in over his head.

Indeed Fredo is a mess when the Don is shot. First he can't even handle his own gun, then when the hodds run away all he can do is sit in the gutter screaming PAPA PAPA!
Maybe he blamed himself for that and thought it was one of the reasons Michael passed him over.

P.S. Thanks for the compliment TB...coming from the Master, that is something.