Hi!

I think it's again a little bit more complicated than it seems.

Logically, Fredo knew that he was doomed. He was smart enough for that, after all. He knew what happened to Paulie, what happened to Carlo, what happened to Sal. He knew pretty well that there was no way for a traitor to survive as long as the Family hadn't lost its grip.

Now, he was Mike's brother, and quite emotional and weak at that. So, he desperately, absolutely desperately hoped that he would be spared if for this reason alone. To the point of absolutely believing in this and blocking the unavoidable completely out of his mind.

So, yes, he knew, and no, he didn't believe that he would be killed at his kid brother's behest. And I don't believe that Al told him anything either, just to make sure that there would be no unnecessary fuss.

As for his loud prayer, it's of course overdramatized and would probably scare all the fish a mile around the hell out of there. But then, sound propagates pretty well along water surface. Anyone who enjoyed fishing on a great quiet lake would assert that it's utterly astonishing to hear people talking some two-three hundred yards away loud and clear as if they were sitting next to you. So, he might still be praying (nearly) under his breath.

And no, I was not surprised that Fredo was killed when I watched this movie for the first time. Kay's abortion was much more treacherous and shocking. Exactly the last stroke from the loved one, in purely Shakespearean style.

Best regards.

Alexander