I fall a bit short of being able to call myself a true "fan", but compared to the way I feel about the Yankees and my preference for NL baseball over the AL-style game, I guess I sort of am.
The key to the rotation, I think, is Pedro, because he's their best starter and the one who with a "Pedro-like" performance can lift the Mets rotation beyond the level of mediocrity.
Glavine, if he continues to perform at his present level - way beyond expectations - is a key pitcher as well.
I don't consider Bannister, Trachsel, or Zambrano to be nearly as important as Pedro or Glavine, simply because the Mets have a rotation-ready replacement available in Aaron Heilman, who might very well be better than any of the other three.
True, Heilamn's elevation to a starting role will leave the bullpen short an arm, but I think a hole like that would be a lot easier to fill than one created by the loss of a #1 or #2 starter.
The offense, though, looks strong. Although
- Nady is almost certainly hitting quite a bit over his head right now.
- With all of the games that Delgado has to play in pitcher-friendly Shea as well as Washington and Florida I don't expect him to keep up anything close to this home run pace and hit 45 or 50 homers or anything like that, and
- Floyd always worries me, with the fact that he's terribly injury prone and 35 years old
I think the ofense will be fine, because I expect
- A big year from Wright (.300+, 30-35+ homers, 110+ RBIs).
- A big improvement for Beltran, in which he has a season with numbers that are much closer to his previous seasons averages (.280 or so, 25-30 homers, 100 or mor RBIs, depending on where in the batting order he winds up hitting).
- A big improvement by Reyes, if not in his on-base percentage via walks, at least an improvement via a higher batting average. With his speed there's no reason that he shouldn't hit at least .300
Since Atlanta doesn't seem to have a starting rotation beyond Smoltz & Hudson, or a closer (or the rest of a bullpen besides), and since the rest of the division looks pretty weak, I think the Mets could actually coast to a division title - like win the thing by maybe 15 games.
