Quote:
Originally posted by plawrence:
As far as our game goes, though, I guess there could be value in knowing which team thebetting public thinks has the greatest chance of winning.
That value is very limited, though, because it takes into account which team has the best chance of winning, which is way different then betting on which pitching staff will have the best pitching score for the day.

Anyway, here are some selected lines from my off-shore sportsbook for today's (Thursday) games:
Code:
Mets         Glavine    -112
Phillies     Lidle      +102
-
Boston       Schilling  +110
NY Yankees   Mussina    -125
-
Texas        Padilla    -165
Arizona      Webb       -150
Houston      Buchholz   -105
Chic Cubs    Zambrano   -118
Tampa Bay    Kazmir     +114
First of all, it should b noted that this line is very early.

In other words, very little money has been bet at these prices yet.

As the bets come on, the lines will be adjusted accordingly to attract money on the side that the book needs to "balance" themselves.

If I have a chance, about 6:30 PM or so tomorrow I'll post the lines again so we can see what, if any, movement there was.

These lines, however, may be more accurate than the ones that reflect actual betting, since they are set by "expert" linemakers (altho it should be pointed out that the line does not necessarily reflect the relative chances of a team winning but, rather, is designed to attract an equal amount of betting action on each side).

I threw the Texas line in there, because at -165 they're the biggest favorite of the day - theoretically the team with the best chance of winning.

But that's because they're at home (in a definite hitter's park), playing a presumably much weaker team (Minnesota), and facing a horrible (so far) pitcher (Lohse, 1-3, 9.71).

The thing to remember here is that just because Texas may have the best chance of winning their game, I don't think that anyone in the world would think that their pitching staff has the best chance of coming in with the best pitching score for the day.

Interestingly, BTW, is the fact that the Chicago White Sox are "off the board", with no line listed.

That's because Contreras apparently is not pitching, and they're not sure who is gonna pitch for the White Sox, so the sportsbook doesn't want to take the chance of coming out with a "wrong" line that can be taken advantage of by someone who does know who's gonna pitch for the Sox.


"Difficult....not impossible"