Quote:
Originally posted by J Geoff:
Nor have I checked to see how accurate their estimates have been... Actually, I'll do that now for yesterday..
Vhecking the accuracy of their W-L recird for betting purposes is meaningless, unless you're gonna keep track of how you would do making the same size bet on their favorite pick every day.

If you're always laying 8-5 or 9-5 or wahtever, you need a winning percentage of well over 60% just to break even.

But if you only lay 6-5 every day, then you only need a winning percentage of about 55%.

Since every day you're laying a different price (and any system which purports to give you the team most likely to win every day will just about always pick a favorite), it's impossible to know if you would have made or lost money betting those picks unless you made a mythical bet of the same amount every day on their selection.

That's way bettors who wager on baseball that know what they're doing look for "value" in the line, rather than winners.

A team that's an 8-5 favorite (-160) will just about always look like the likelier team to win, but the smart bettor will ask himself "Are they likely to win more or than 62.5% of the time?

A team that's a 7-5 underdog (+140) will just about always look like the likelier team to lose, but the smart bettor will ask himself "Are they likely to lose more or less than 41.7% of the time?

As far as our game goes, though, I guess there could be value in knowing which team thebetting public thinks has the greatest chance of winning.

I never really looked to see if my betting site posts the lines on the next days games before 3:00 AM.

They're up there now - I'll post them in a minute - and I'll check tomorrow to see about what time they post them for Thursday's games.


"Difficult....not impossible"