Originally posted by plawrence: You can agree or disagree with my last projection, and that does not include the trade for Dye in which you improved by 30 points or so, but I think you have to agree that the race is obviously a lot closer than the raw point totals would indicate.
The question is "How much closer?"
If it's real close, there are an awful lot of scenarios in which not that much has to happen for me to win.
I don't see any scenario where you're making up 400 points. I guarantee it's next to imposible for people that are behind in games played to make up most, if any of them up. Teams now have less days off. Players are getting days off to rest, etc. For example, the Mets only have 5 days off from now until the end of the season. Lets say I want to make up my games at CF that Beltran missed. That's only 5 oportunities to make up a game. Since he's guaranteed to get a couple of days off, I know I'm going to lose games, not make any up. The players that are behind 20, 30, 40+ games played are screwed.
