Well, let's see (Hope you read all of this, because it took me a helluva long time to write it)....

It's an indicator that what happened in the past in many cases is not a reliable indicator of what will happen in the future.

If a player has done well the past week, that doesn't mean he'll do well the following weeek.

If a player did poorly the past few Julys, that doesn't mean he'll do poorly the next few.

Andruw Jones' July batting average is a perfect example.

Since 2002 his July batting average is .261

Since 1997, it's .248

That indicates - and I'm just estimating here, but I can't be too far off - that from 1997-2001 his July batting averge was around .235

So the July batting averages at the beginning of his career had no predictive value with respect to his July batting averages for the past 5 years.

I don't recall his ever addressing the question of monthly batting averages.

But based on his other work, I'd guess that he agrees with me.

I might agree with that, about pitchers.

But you suggested to me that the difference in Andruw Jones July batting average was a reason why the trade didn't look so good.

I was merely pointing out how insignificant a 10 or 15 or 20 point difference in a batting average over a month's time is.

Where did the .284 and the .231 come from?

I never really noticed.

Considering that parks change, players reach their peaks and start to fade, personnel from other teams change, the pitchers a guy faces every year reach their peaks and start to fade, etc., I don't consider stats regarding a player's performance to be worth very much at all when they are more than a few years old.

Of you look at just about any player's stats (there will, of course, be exceptions), you will find that in the categories which I think do have predictive value - such as home run frequency, batting average, E.R.A., strikeout frequency, just to name a few - what a player has done the past few years is a much better basis for predicting what he will do in the immediate future.

What Andruw Jones did in the early part of his career isn't worth very much in predicting what he will do this year.


Well, if you want to believe that I guess i can't convince you otherwise, but I think that I've shown, at least in the case of Andruw Jones, that there really isn't any trend with respect to his July batting averages.

The first part of his career he hit about .235 in July.

The last few years he's hit .261 in July.

His lifetime BA is .272.

I don't really see any trend there.

I think you missed my point there, because what I'm saying bolsters your argument, since it increases the difference in his July batting average and his lifetime average.

What I'm saying is his lifetime average is .272, but part of that .272 is because he's only hit .261 in July the past few years.

So if you subtract his "poor" July performance from his totals, his lifetime batting average would be higher than .272, thus increasing the difference between his performance in July and his performance in the other months.

Which supports your argument that he doesn't do as well in July.

Where's the "crafty finagling" there?

As far as "disregarding the stats" goes.....

I'm only disregarding those which I don't believe have any importance.

While I'll grant you that a hitter's performance in a given month may be influenced to a small extent by the weather, it's not enough, IMO, to matter.

If you told me that you always took Andruw Jones in the Salary Cap Game on Tuesday, because his lifetime Tuesday batting average was .325, I'd say that it was a pure fluke, and that there was maybe a 10% chance (DB knows how to figure this stuff out, I don't, so maybe he'll jump in) that a guy with a lifetime batting average of .272 could hit .325 on a given day of the week - while certainly unlikely, well within the bounds of reasonable possibility.

Still hung up on those raw point totals from Yahoo, huh?

Well, as I indicated before if you fail to realize that our respective positions in the standings are greatly influenced by the number of offensive ganes and pitching starts we've used, I guess I can't convince you otherwise.

But lemme take one more shot here:

Going into yesterday, you've used 725 offensive games, and I've used 718.

Will you give me my average - 3.46 FPP - for those "seven games in hand" I have to equal your total?

If you will, that's another 24 points for me.

And, going into yesterday, you've used 103 pitching starts, and I've used 86.

The current FPPG average of my 5 starters is 13.4 FPPG.

Will you give me 13.4 PPG for the 17 "starts in hand" that I have to equal your total?

If so, that's another 228 points for me.

That makes our totals 3954 for you, and 3827 for me.

Hardly a commanding lead (and I’m not gonna do the projections for everyone else, which would show that you are not in first or second place).

But let’s look at it another way:

The raw total score going into yesterday was 3954 to 3599.

But……

I have 76 pitching starts left. At 13.4 FPPG, that gives me another 1018 points.

You have 59 starts left. At your average for your top 5 starters (12.7), that gives you another 749 points.

I have 740 offensive games left. At 3.46 FPPG, that gives me another 2560 points.

You have 733 offensive games left. At your average (3.25), that gives you another 2382 points.

Put those numbers together, and you’re at 7085, and I’m at 7177.

Now, relief pitching:

The season has 183 days.

Going into Sunday, you had 466 RP Points in 91 days, or 5.1 per day.

I had 327 RP Points, or 3.6 per day.

With 82 says to go, you project to another 469 RP Points, while I project to another 331.

Add those numbers to our total, and we’re left with

JG 7554
PL 7508

Now I know that I'm not in first place based on projections.

But it looks pretty damn close between you and I.

Close enough so that I wouldn’t say that you’re in first place while I’m “mired” in 5th.....

As I say, you wanna ignore the stats and just go by the raw totals, be my guest. Maybe it’ll give you a false sense of security.

Finally, let me just say this about all of that:

A lot can happen in the next three months….injuries, trades, hot or cold second halves, surprise players, etc.

But…..all things being equal, it’s very close among the top 5 here, and although I have my own idea about who I think will win, I also think that the game will be ultimately decided by one of those factors that prevent "all things being equal."



Now your giving lessons?.....LOL


What’s “fancy” about the math? I think the basis for my projections is completely sound.

If you want to show me where my reasoning is faulty, feel free.

Altho I do stand corrected…..

My projections do not show me passing you, although they did the last time I checked..

But it’s certainly close enough so that if you think that you have a 400 point lead on me – or any kind of significant lead for that matter – then I don’t know what to tell you.

Well, I have been neglecting my duties.

Truth is that for the last 7-8 weeks I’ve been doing some small scale real betting.

I was doing so poorly in both the fantasy games that I started to bet on the opposite of what some of my fantasy picks were.

I’ve been doing quite well, too, AAMOF – I’ve increased my starting bankroll by about 80%.

But even tho I’ve been betting small amounts, I’ve been devoting the same amount of research time to the picks I’ve been making in addition to the ones that are opposite my fantasy picks as I would if I were betting hundreds of dollars per game, so I’ve been neglecting my other responsibilities.

(Note: Excuse any typos -- I didn't really proof this)