No PL analysis? I'm shocked! [/b][/quote]I haven't had a chance...I'll get to it, though. [/b][/quote]OK, here's my long-awaited analysis....

What? You haven't been awaiting it?

Well, you know me....you're gonna get it anyway :p

First of all, comparing Blaylock's production to Johnson's production is meaningless.

JL’s first baseman is Todd Helton. Nick Johnson was a bench player; a spare part. If a guy isn’t gonna play much – as Johnson didn’t figure to – then what difference does it make how many points he’s scoring? He’s not playing, so he’s not gonna be scoring those points for your team.

So from JL’s POV, this trade is A. Rod for Blaylock and Carpenter.

Gotta love that for JL.

The comparison that has to be made here from JL’s POV is Blaylock for A. Rod, and Carpenter for whoever JL he replaces as a starter.

Prior to the trade, these were JL’s six SPs:

Oswalt
Hernandez
Maddux
Zito
Vasquez
E. Santana

Whoever JL drops from that group, I believe that the gain by inserting Carpenter will be well over 100 points, figuring that all of these guys each have about 24 starts or so left.

I’m gonna estimate – conservatively, I think – 5 points per start times 24 starts, or a gain of 120 points for JL.

And I figure that the net loss for replacing A Rod with Blaylock will be far less than 100 points.

I’m gonna estimate – conservatively again, I think – half a point a game for 120 games, or a loss of 60 points for JL.

So on balance, I see this as a net gain for JL of about 40 points. And again, I think that’s a conservative estimate.


Now, from JG’s POV……

If the loss for JL in replacing A Rod with Blaylock is 60 points, then the gain for JG by making the same change is the same – 60 points.

But what does he lose by replacing Carpenter with whoever?

Well, here are JG’s SPs before the trade:

Carpenter
Lackey
Zambrano
Schnidt
Penny
Hamels

Now he’s Replaced Carpenter with Nate Robertson.

I figure that the net loss on that switch is gonna be way more than the 60 points or so he’s gonna gain by switching Blaylock for A Rod.

Advantage: JL.