From The Department Of Useless Statistics

Seeing someone move ahead of me in the standings usually sends me fleeing into my panic mode, so I figured it was time for a projection since I haven't done one for a while.

First, a few caveats:

These projections are based on the assumption that everyone will hit their maximum number of games played at each position, something that, given the attention level of some of the participants here, I certainly don't expect to happen.

I could do a projection which includes on how many games below the max people are on a pace to finish with (which would be more accurate, I guess), but that's another two steps and a lot more work.

Also, we're still at the point where one really good or bad game can change the whole thing.

For example, if in his next pitching start DB has a guy who gets +27 - just one guy in one game - that would add an additional 548 points to DB's projection.

And, I don't expect certain of these projections to hold up throughout the season.

For example, I don't expect CC to average only a quarter of a point a day in relief pitching, and I don't expect DB to average almost a negative quarter of a point per pitching start for the whole season - I think both will do much better over the long run.

Anyway, here it is. No math; if you want to do it yourself, the formula is a few pages back.

Projected Finish