Well, seeing as how I've won more salary cap games - by far - than anyone else around here, I guess I'm eminiently qualified to comment.
Salary Cap games almost certainly do require more skill than than this "draft" type of game -
(I won't even talk about how the luck of the schedule is the biggest single factor in determining the winner of those draft-style "head-to-head" games, since I've already shown that the schedule which does gets played is just one of thousands of possible random possibilities, and it's possible to construct one in which the person who finished last finishes first, based on the luck of the draw).
First of all, as in real life, there's the injury factor, which doesn't exist in salary cap.
Altho this is somewhat offset by the fact that some players are clearly more injury-prone than others and obviously should be avoided in a draft, there are many cases of injury which are pure luck.
Also, a draft game puts an inordinate amount of importance on the draft itself.
Although that unique aspect of the game is the one that I would guess that most playes enjoy the most, the fact is that if you are poor at drafting you are simply not gonna win, while if you can draft more skillfully than anyone else you can overcome anything, including the much over-rated (IMO) factor of when you pick (first, second, last, etc.).
While it can be argued that a draft-stlye game resembles real-life in that you have to construct a team from scratch, the fact is it is nothing at all like real-life.
In truth, major league sports teams spend lifetimes building their organizations - their front office personnel, their on-field management, their amateur draft strategy, the signing of free agents, their farm systems, etc. - and there is no sport which requires the skill of beng able to draft a team from scratch from the pool of existing major league-calibre players.
So while there obviously is a skill involved in doing so - deciding, for example, who to draft and who not to draft, based on a lot more than last year's statistics, but taking into account the expected improvement or worsening of a player's performance based on other factors, such as age, change in league, or changes in home park - it is a skill that bears no true resemblance to any in real life.
A Salary cap game, on the other hand - as you correctly point out - is played on a level playing field.
Everyone chooses from the same pool of players and has available to them the same set of data, so the winner will be that person who makes the best use of the information available, or who has the best "theory" (if you will) of how to use the data in developing a strategy of "how" the game should be played.
Now....that is not to say that a draft game is completely devoid of all elments of skill.
First of all, in this game in particular, skill is required in the management of the "maximum of 162 games at each position" (for both hitters and starting pitchers) factor - not only in making sure that you don't "lose" or "miss" any games (and the potential points that could be earned in those lost or missed games), but in deciding how to allot those games among the players on your roster, based on, for example, matchups.
Yes, you could argue that the management of the 162 game maximum aspect is nothing more than a mathematical exercise - which to some extent it is - but the math certainly takes a back seat to the strategy of deciding, as I said, on how those 162 games should be alloted.
There is also strategizing involved in developing an overall strategy for how to play - a philosophy, so to speak.
I'd really love to say more about that at this point but, sadly, because of the obvious risks involved in the divulging of the details of my own strategy, I am precluded from doing so.
And finally we come to the "trades" aspect of the game - to what you presumably (and humorously) refer to as "crafty finagling."
I would submit that that particular aspect of the game is skill.
Or, more accuarately, how is it not skill?
It resembles real-life sports in its purest form. Is there a General Manager in the world who doesn't think that he's either gotten the better of the deal or helped his team more than he's hurt it when he completes a trade?
Certainly not, because if that was not the case he wouldn't be making the trade in the first place.
So trading comes down to pure judgement, and to call it "crafty finagling" is rather unfair.
Some deals work out and help both teams, some don't work out and help only one.
Some end up helping neither team, but unless injuries become a factor Idon't see where the ability to make good trades is anything other than skill.
A little knowledge about the players, a little psychology with respect to the person with whom you're dealing, but hey, this is business, isn't it?
Finally, I guess you could put free agent/waiver moves under the same umbrella.
Once again, I'm afraid, there's a philosophy involved here which precludes my going into it too deeply.
Suffice it to say, however, that making free agent moves, can be nothing more than pure skill.
Certainly you're not suggesting that someone making them is just throwing a million moves against a wall and waiting to see what sticks?
I'd venture to say that every free agent move that anyone makes is made for a reason.
Sure, there's luck involved in seeing which ones work and which ones don't, but they are initially made for a reason.
Looking back at what I just wrote here, I guess I'm not arguing that salary cap requires more skill than a "draft game".
Both require elements of skill and luck.
But I would say that the "level playing field" factor in salary cap would probably leave me inclined to agree with you about ehich game requires less luck.
That, and the fact that if you draft poorly in a draft game you are left with virtually no chance of winning, and altho I should emphasize that drafting is a skill as well, it takes on a way too disproportionate amount of importance.
If you draft poorly - a two hour event before the season starts - you simply can't win unless you get extremely lucky, and a two hour pre-season event shouldn't be the largest (by far) single factor that determines the outcome of a game that takes six months to play out.
