At first glance, the Yankees' path to the postseason looks as encouraging as it's been in months: They're two games ahead of the Red Sox, Bobby Abreu is 10-for-25 in pinstripes, and with Robinson Cano due to return to the lineup tonight (and Hideki Matsui only two weeks behind him) the offense is ready to resume its mission to nuke the American League into submission.
Or is it?
To the contrary, the Bombers have been anything but the monster home run hitters they envisioned this spring, and they'll fall well short of the 1,000 runs they were supposed to score (at least in their dreams). In fact, when the Yankees begin a three-game series with the White Sox, they'll be facing an opponent that has scored more runs, blasted more HRs, and hit for a higher average and slugging percentage.
Surprisingly, though, the Yankees have drawn 74 more walks than the defending world champs, and therein lies what Joe Torre calls the secret to October success. In fact, acquiring Abreu from the Phillies wasn't just about replacing Gary Sheffield's run production. It was designed to promote an improvement in the Yankees' on-base percentage, and more specifically, to wear out opposing pitchers by going deeper into counts.
Abreu leads the majors in pitches per plate appearance (4.48) and is second only to Kevin Youkilis in the number of pitches he's seen this season. Abreu left the Phillies as the NL's leader in walks, and has joined forces with another ultra-patient Yankee, Jason Giambi, whose 4.36 PPA ratio ranks him third in the AL and fourth in the majors.
And Torre is pleased to see the Yankees becoming more selective.
"[We] have what it takes to go through a pennant race," he said. "You're going to be facing the best pitching. This type of approach will serve you better than waiting for a mistake to hit. I feel very comfortable with this ballclub."
So far, Abreu's presence has made a difference, albeit in a small sample. The Yankees won 5 of 6 against the Blue Jays and Orioles last week, catching and passing the Red Sox for the first time since June 9. In the five Yankees victories, opposing starters averaged 4.2 innings and 88 pitches before being knocked out.
Abreu has been too modest to take credit for anything other than his own at-bats. But he does admit a fondness for long plate appearances.
"I've always been patient," he said, adding that the more pitches he sees, "the better I can see the rotation of the ball. That helps me make adjustments in that at-bat and other [upcoming at-bats]."
Giambi has a similar obsession with deep counts, although he suffered through a horrendous July, during which he batted just .186. But Giambi's patience could be having a residual effect on Derek Jeter, who two years ago had bottomed out with a 3.54 PPA. This year, as he's competing for the AL batting title, Jeter is up to 3.76 pitches per trip to the plate, proving that perseverance pays off.
Jeter used to be a classic swing-at-the-first-pitch-he-likes hitter, insisting that it had nothing to do with impatience or impulsivity. Instead, he discovered in 2004 that AL pitchers were determined not to walk him and set up big innings for Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez.
"They were going after me right away," Jeter said, "and a lot of times that first pitch was the best one I would see, a get-me-over strike."
But if anyone has a problem with first-pitch swinging, it would've been the "Moneyball" era A's. In 2003, at the height of Billy Beane's fixation with on-base percentage, the A's swung at only 18.5 percent of first-pitch strikes, the lowest in the American League according to STATS, Inc. Although they batted .343 in those situations -- meaning they clearly identified which strikes were most hittable -- Oakland's hitters were otherwise falling into 0-1 counts more often than anyone else.
Even a one-strike disadvantage can be fatal against a top-level pitcher. In his Cy Young season in 2001, Roger Clemens kept AL hitters to a .192 average after they fell behind 0-1. So it's a fine line between being patient and becoming too passive.
Still, the greater goal, for the Yankees and everyone else, is to make an opposing pitcher labor through each at-bat, inning after inning until he's exhausted.
"You're not going to make a living hitting off, say, Clemens for eight innings and then Mariano Rivera for one," Beane said. "Going deep into counts is a way to get the more talented pitchers out of the game sooner. What you prefer is to get deeper into the staff and get some of those at-bats against middle relievers."
That's the philosophy Abreu hopes to impart on the Bombers between now and October. It's not exciting, it hardly makes for "SportsCenter" moments. But so far, the Yankees aren't arguing with the results.
