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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243973
10/10/04 08:18 PM
10/10/04 08:18 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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The "scoresheet" doesn't appear to be right, so I checked individually: SP 7-6 GB PL 7-6 TN MC 6-7 TN BD 6-7 GB CB 6-7 GB DB 4-9 GB JG 3-10 TN <--- WTF??? Worse than blind picking 
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey!  lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243975
10/11/04 01:00 PM
10/11/04 01:00 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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Originally posted by MaryCas:
JG.....he just plain stinks. Hey! DB resembles that remark, too!   But I ask our probability peeps this: Are the odds of correctly picking all teams CORRECTLY (given that you thought about the match-ups) the same as mistakenly picking them all wrong? Cuz if the odds ARE the same, then I contend that I beat the odds and did better than anyone else!  Really, tho, what are the odds of picking significantly worse than random? Or is it just some Curse factor?
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243976
10/11/04 06:10 PM
10/11/04 06:10 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
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OP
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Originally posted by J Geoff:
I ask our probability peeps this: Are the odds of correctly picking all teams CORRECTLY (given that you thought about the match-ups) the same as mistakenly picking them all wrong? If there are 14 games, then the odds are 1/2 to the 13th power. Or, one chance in 16,384. When you say that you "thought about the match-ups", that presumes that by thinking about them you increase your chances of picking correctly. But absent any evidence to the contrary, and no insult intended, I don't think it makes any difference in your case how much you think about it. So, the chances of getting them all right are the same as getting them all wrong. I'm not sure how to compute the odds of going, say, 3-11 or 11-3, though.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243977
10/11/04 07:54 PM
10/11/04 07:54 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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Originally posted by plawrence:
I don't think it makes any difference in your case how much you think about it. Funny guy. :rolleyes: Okay, let me rephrase that... would it make any difference to ONE...? I assume with adequate research and experience and knowledge, "experts" can increase their odds a LITTLE BIT. We all know those "experts" who suck every week, and we've all lucked out at one point or another. I supposed the "edge" would be minimal, and probably not significant. But here's my point: Wouldn't random odds suggest that one would get about half right, 50/50? Like all you "mediocre" pickers this week going 6-7 and 7-6 ... The odds of that would be close to 50/50, right? That'd make sense, like a bell curve. Never mind. Scratch that.
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243978
10/11/04 08:37 PM
10/11/04 08:37 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
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OP
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The Slippery Slope
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No, you're right. A record of 7-7, or 6-8 or 8-6 would be the most likely outcomes in a week with 14 games. It would be like a bell curve. If there were 10,000,000 weeks with 14 games, 5,000,000 0f those weeks you should go 7-7. 2,500,000 of those weeks you should go 8-6 or 6-8 1,250,00 of those weeks you should go either 9-5 or 5-9 625,000 of those weeks you should go 9-5 or 5-9 312,500 of those weeks 10-4 or 4-10 156,250 of those weeks 11-3 or 3-11 78,125 of those weeks 12-2 or 2-12 39,063 of those weeks 13-1 or 1-13 19,532 0f those weeks 14-0 or 0-14 Hmmm...doesn't add up to 10,000,000  Only 9,980,000 DB! Help, DB.....
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243980
10/11/04 09:48 PM
10/11/04 09:48 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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Very observant! That would explain the last 20,000... give that kid a cigar!
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243981
10/12/04 07:18 AM
10/12/04 07:18 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
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OP
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The Slippery Slope
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Just testing you guys to make sure you were paying attention. If there were 10,000,000 weeks with 14 games, 5,000,000 0f those weeks you should go 7-7. 2,500,000 of those weeks you should go 8-6 or 6-8 1,250,00 of those weeks you should go either 9-5 or 5-9 625,000 of those weeks you should go 10-4 or 4-10 312,500 of those weeks 11-3 or 3-11 156,250 of those weeks 12-2 or 2-12 78,125 of those weeks 13-1 or 1-13 39,063 of those weeks 14-0 or 0-14 Now the total is even less...9,960,938 Hmmm....this is clearly wrong. Gotta think about it some more. DB! Help, DB.....
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243982
10/12/04 07:56 AM
10/12/04 07:56 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
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OP
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Meanwhile, here are the standings after Week 5 The +/- dollar amount is based on a mythical bet of $100 per game, laying 11-10 CB 34 6 40-34 +$ 260
MC 33 7 40-34 +$ 260
PL 30 8 38-36 -$ 160
JG 31 4 35-39 -$ 790
SP 28 7 35-39 -$ 790
DB 30 4 34-40 -$1000
BD 27 6 33-41 -$1210
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243984
10/19/04 08:11 AM
10/19/04 08:11 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
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Standings after Week 6 The +/- dollar amount is based on a mythical bet of $100 per game, laying 11-10 CB 40 9 49-39 +$610
MC 40 8 48-40 +$400
PL 38 8 46-42 -$ 20
JG 35 11 46-42 -$ 20
SP 35 9 44-44 -$440
DB 34 8 42-46 -$860
BD 33 9 42-46 -$860
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243985
10/19/04 11:31 AM
10/19/04 11:31 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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Hey Plaw - I'm not up on my bookmaking... can you please explain those numbers to me? How would I have lost $20 going 11-3? How does it work?
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243986
10/19/04 11:43 AM
10/19/04 11:43 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
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OP
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The -$20 is your season total.
You have to risk $110 for every $100 you want to win. That's how the book makes a profit. They figure the average guy is gonna go .500, so with the 11-10 set-up you have to win 11/21 bets (.524) just to break even.
Your season record is 46-42. So, betting $100 on each game, you would have won $4600 for your 46 winners, but lost $4620 (42 x $110) on your 42 losers.
Net result for the season, -$20.
An 11-3 week, though, wins you $770.
$1100 for your 11 winners, minus $330 (3 x $110) for your three losers.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243987
10/19/04 11:52 AM
10/19/04 11:52 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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Duh, okay thanks... for some reason I didn't realize that was the season total BIG difference one or two wins makes! Only down $20 after 6 weeks is pretty good for me, especially after last week
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243989
10/26/04 06:56 AM
10/26/04 06:56 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
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OP
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The Slippery Slope
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Standings after Week 7 (The +/- dollar amount is based on a mythical bet of $100 per game, laying 11-10) PL 46 9 55-47 +$330
MC 48 5 53-49 -$ 90
JG 46 6 52-50 -$300
CB 49 3 52-50 -$300
SP 44 7 51-51 -$510
DB 42 7 49-53 -$930
BD 42 7 49-53 -$930
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243991
10/26/04 04:17 PM
10/26/04 04:17 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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Still in 3rd, still in the race. As usual. (yawn)
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243992
11/02/04 07:17 AM
11/02/04 07:17 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
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OP
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Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Standings after Week 8 (The +/- dollar amount is based on a mythical bet of $100 per game, laying 11-10) PL 55 7 62-54 +$ 260
MC 53 7 60-56 -$ 160
JG 52 8 60-57 -$ 160
SP 51 8 59-57 -$ 370
CB 52 4 56-60 -$1000
DB 49 7 56-60 -$1000
BD 49 6 55-61 -$1210
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243994
11/03/04 03:58 PM
11/03/04 03:58 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
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OP
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Well, when you figure that the average guy like you or me doesn't really know anything special, and given the bookmakers skill in establishing a point spread that will attract an equal amount of action on each side, and then you realize how hard it is to have a winning percentage of .524 just to stay even......
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243995
11/08/04 12:55 PM
11/08/04 12:55 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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Boy do we suck at this...! No one's picked 12 correctly yet. There are only two 11's and three 10's. Only one has had double-digits twice. There's a 3 and at least three 4's. More breakdown after tonight's game... but it's not pretty!  And it looks like Spike took the week off...?
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#243998
11/15/04 02:03 PM
11/15/04 02:03 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,286
New Jersey, USA
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Battle for First:
JG 76 Philly vs.
PL 76 Dallas
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: ESPN Pigskin Pick'Em Football Game
#244000
11/16/04 08:10 AM
11/16/04 08:10 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Standings after Week 10 (The +/- dollar amount is based on a mythical bet of $100 per game, laying 11-10) JG 69 8 77-67 +$ 330
MC 67 9 76-68 +$ 120
PL 67 9 76-68 +$ 120
CB 62 7 69-75 -$1350
BD 61 5 66-78 -$1980
DB 60 6 66-78 -$1980
SP 59 5 64-66 -$ 860
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Ouch! I hurt my head falling out of first place. 
