Sounds right, DB.....My instincts tell me that 41% sounds like the right number.
But I'd feel better if instead of backing into the answer, we were fronting in.
To meander a bit, I know that as long as their is the possibility of two outcomes, the probability is never 100%. Even if there were 100 pitchers on the list, each with 299 wins and a 99% chance of winning only one more game, the probability is still not 100% that one of them will make it (Damn fockin' close, though).
So if there are five guys, each with a 10% chance, there can't be a 50% that one of them will make it, because that would mean that if there were ten guys on the list, the probability would be 100%
