We're not going with the 16 million number. Beth's original question was "What were the chances of someone picking the same team as she did?".
I'm convinced that the 16 million number only applies to two people picking the same predetermined roster. To put it another way:
The chances of two people matching a coin flip in any manner is 1/2. The chances of two people both throwing heads is 1/4. (starting to repeat myself here...)
Let's work with how the size of the group affects the odds and the 4096 number.
And keep it simple for me, please. My Probability & Statistics course in college was about 35 years ago.
