Believe it or not, DB, I pondered the question some more on the ride home tonight. (and, of course, thinking coin-flipping analogies as Idrove).

At first, I thought I was incorrect, and the odds were 4096 x 4096. But then I figured, if there are 4096 ways to arrange the team, and CC arranged it one way, whoever else had a 1/4096 chance of arranging it the same way.

But I'm not sure your answer is ever the correct one.

If CC chooses heads first, then the chances of SP choosing heads is 1/2. But not knowing if Beth took heads or tails, i.e. if they "flip" simultaneously, then SP still has a 1/2 chance of matching (H-H or T-T), or not matching (T-H, H-T).

I know there's a scenario where 4096 x 4096 is the correct answer, I just don't know what it is.