Baron Davis is definately on my "do not play" list.

I feel like Paul Simon this morning. I'm "slip, sliding away".

Thursday

DB 2206 122.8 092 (-30.8) 2298 095.7
PL 2195 121.8 092 (-29.8) 2287 098.6
BT 2097 111.3 077 (-34.3) 2174 097.7
JG 2061 123.6 082 (-41.6) 2143 095.5
OA 1994 114.2 131 (+17.2) 2125 095.5
CC 2015 118.7 099 (-19.7) 2114 096.0
SP 1915 099.2 103 (+03.8) 2018 096.0
TM 1907 113.1 087 (-26.1) 1994 096.0

Figure this out...

I just happened to notice that the V. AVGs which I posted yesterday morning for the games played last night, are now different.

If you click on any player in our league, and look at his "previous" day (in this case Wednesday), his total V. Avg doesn't match what it was on Wednesday morning

I don't know if I explained that very well...

I haven't noticed; Do they change player values daily in this game? That would account for the discrepency.

I noticed that once before also, plaw. There was one instance where I had a few players playing on consecutive days but the PVR changed the second day and I renegotiated the value (and it was midweek). I just thought it was a glitch.

In any case, since our rosters are different daily, it doesn't really affect us since we're always picking at the hypothetically higher values (if the value changes are daily).

I would think that the V.AVG should change daily (the day after a particular player plays the night before)... but the player values should only change weekly.

Once I thought I noticed a player's value changing in mid-week but thought I was seeing things since I only noticed it once. I don't know...

Ha... You would think that a person with a statistics major (me) would have caught that...

In any case, I stand by my earlier comment- I once renegotiated values midweek (even after renegotiating the values on the Monday before).

What's the odds of this. SP and I have the exact same roster, right down to our Coach. Sorry kid, doesn't look like you're moving anywhere tonight. And PL has almost the same roster, except he has Ginobli instead of Finley.

I'm not feeling so confident about tonight. T-Mac hurt. Jahidi White hurt. Ugggh. It's not going to be pretty.

Well, if it's any consolation DB I would hope that PL gets some bad luck to keep him off our tail, but beings we have almost identical rosters I can't do that. :p I'm not feeling too confident in my roster for tomorrow to tell you the truth. But sometimes you gotta roll the dice and say, WTF.

No curse from Bethie, even for old times sake??

I think plaw is curse proof anyway... with his deal with the and all! :p

The bad thing is sometimes The Curse of Bethie came back to harm me. Case in point, my "rooting" for The Braves. :rolleyes: So maybe I'll just use the silent treatment as part of my plan, for old time's sake.

You weren't really rooting for the Braves anyway... you were just rooting for Vinny! :p

:p

How many more months until Spring Training?

First you, Bethie... then Buffy asks about Spring Training as well... Do you two miss Karros and Castilla that much??!! :p

I'm guessing pitchers and catchers report around March or April...

Posted by Baltimore Crab Cake
posted November 20, 2003 02:59 PM
Quote
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"What's the odds of this. SP and I have the exact same roster, right down to our Coach. "
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Well, let's see... One over the number of players available at each position (including coach), to the fifth power.

In other words, there are 2 games tonight. Four teams involved. Four "feasible" picks (No one's gonna pick the scrubs) for each position.

You pick "Player A". SP has a 1/4 chance of also picking "Player A". So the chances of both of you picking "Player A" is 1/4.

(DB, feel free to jump in aanywhere here)

Now do that 5 more times for the other four positions and coach, and you get 1/4 to the 5th power, or 1/4096, or, expressed in odds, 4095-1, or, as a percentage, 0.0002441.

That number, 4096, is also the number of ways a 6 man roster can be arranged if there are 4 choices at each position, but because of salary cap restrictions, there are any number of the 4096 combinations which have to be excluded.

(Jump in anywhere, DB)

For exanple, tonight picking McGrady, Duncan, Marbury, Nowitzki, and any center I believe, would put you over the cap.

So, to answer your question "What are the odds?"
The answer is "I don't know". Less than 4096 to 1, though.

Close Plaw... You are absolutely correct that the chances of Bethie picking a 6 member team out of 4 teams playing is 1 out of 4096 (4 to the sixth power) As you mentioned, the probability is probably less by virtue of player value restrictions- you might have only 2 or 3 of the 4 players available to you once you chose a high value player at another position).

However, we are talking about the probability of two people having the same team. That means whatever probability that Bethie has in picking her team, SP has the same probability (up to a max of 1 out of 4096).

Therefore, the probability of both having the same exact team is 1 out of 16,777,216 (4096*4096).

It's much like two people flipping coins. Both have a 1 out of 2 chance of getting heads or tails. There is a 1 out of 4 chance of both getting heads, both getting tails, one getting heads while the other tails (and vice versa).

Plaw... I've reread your answer and the more I think about it, you answered it correctly depending on how the question is phrased...

If the question is asked:

What is the probability that two players have the same team?

The answer is my answer: 1 out of 16,777,216.

If the question is asked:

What is the probability that SP chooses the same team as Bethie given Bethie's team is already picked?

Then the answer is your answer: 1 out of 4096.

Why, oh why, am I stupid enough to ask silly questions that I think will never be answered. I forget what crowd I hang with. :rolleyes: :p

Oh, and to answer your earlier question DB, yes, I do miss Castilla that much. What can I say. I never claimed to have a life.

Believe it or not, DB, I pondered the question some more on the ride home tonight. (and, of course, thinking coin-flipping analogies as Idrove).

At first, I thought I was incorrect, and the odds were 4096 x 4096. But then I figured, if there are 4096 ways to arrange the team, and CC arranged it one way, whoever else had a 1/4096 chance of arranging it the same way.

But I'm not sure your answer is ever the correct one.

If CC chooses heads first, then the chances of SP choosing heads is 1/2. But not knowing if Beth took heads or tails, i.e. if they "flip" simultaneously, then SP still has a 1/2 chance of matching (H-H or T-T), or not matching (T-H, H-T).

I know there's a scenario where 4096 x 4096 is the correct answer, I just don't know what it is.

Oh, and thank you Bethie for asking such a stimulating question.

I stimulated you? How did I do that?

Intellectual stimulation can sometimes be more effective than physical stimulation. And since you've.......never mind.

Good points plaw. As I thought about it, your points below are what you've said before, but just put in another way. Let me explain...

This was exactly your point before... Given Bethie's team (which we can set in stone), SP has a 1 out of 4096 chance of matching it. The key is that we already know what Bethie picked a team.

This too is also the same point. We know that Bethie picked one of the 4 power forwards. Knowing that she picked one, someone else has a 1 in 4 chance of picking the same one. However, there's a slight difference in asking about the probability that Tim Duncan is picked. Bethie has a 1 in 4 chance. So does another person. Together, they have a 1 in 16 chance of both picking Tim Duncan.

As for your above example, you're right that there is a 1 in 2 chance that they match. There is also 1 in 4 chance that they both have heads.

Maybe here's a way to clarify the question:

What are the odds of two players picking the same point guard, the same shooting guard,..., and the same coach? 1 in 4096

What are the odds of two players both picking Tyronne Lue, T-Mac,..., and Frank Johnson?
1 in 16,777,216.

What do you think? I think this is a problem, not of statistics, but of semantics.

Exactly! This is a better way to say it than how I said it (What are the odds of both picking Tyronne Lue, T-Mac...)

I know the points were the same. I was just giving you the thought process I used to convince myself I was right after thinking I might have been wrong.

Now, how do we account for group size to reduuce the odds from 4095-1?

This can be answered by this logic. We've always been focusing on two specific people - Bethie and SP. But it can be any two from our eight.

Therefore, we have to multiply the probability of two players choosing the same team (let's use the 1 in 16 million number for now) with the number of combinations of 2 players out of a group of 8 players (i.e. we use the "choose" function - 8 choose 2).

If we were a bigger group, say out of 5000, the probability of any two players choosing the same exact team will be a lot bigger since now we multiply the same probability as before (1 in 16 million) with 5000 choose 2 (which is much bigger than 8 choose 2).

You lost me there...