Antoni, I think you are right about Tony. He picked a fight to prove to himself and others that he still could get it on because of Johnny Sack crying and Phil's reaction to it. He looked at the arms et al to decide who he would take on. His bodyguard didn't fight back because you don't punch out a family boss if you want to live. Didn't you hear Sil telling him don't do it?

I'm wondering if we are missing the target. Could it be that a member of Tony's blood family is a target. You have the wedding of Sack's daughter, Tony talking to Meadow about getting married, and Tony smiling over at Meadow at the wedding. I wonder if this is a setup for her kidnapping or accidental shooting ala GFIII. When Carmel walked to the end of the driveway to get the paper, a hit or kidnapping was the first thing that entered my mind.