Fistly, I think I'd change the name of the thread (via Edit) to something like "Pie-O-My." I'd hate for somebody who hasn't seen season four to read that!

Regarding your question: I think before Tony even stepped into Ralphie's house, he was dead certain that hew as going to make Ralphie the scapegoat, whether he'd done it or not. THe fact that Ralphie didn't deny the incident and even provoked Tony just gave the Boss justification in killing him, and thus making him feel better (for a short while) in taking his anger out on somebody.

The first time I saw it, I was so shocked that I tended to be on Ralphie's side, but after rewatching it, I'd have to say that Ralphie did light the fire.

Mick