When I first saw it I thought it was Paulie, and actually thought that Tony would find out and Paulie would be punished. I haven't seen this episode or season since, as I recorded over it before rewatching, but it is on my Chrimbo list, so maybe I'll find out for sure if it was Ralphie (I think it's nice that it's open to interpretation; it certainly gives the writers a chance to come back to it with a sudden twist in Season 5's plot).
Mick